Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch of the fall season! All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis follows. My current predictions are as of October 3, 2015.
The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.
Life in Pieces: I have moved Life in Pieces from "On the Bubble" to "Likely to be Canceled" after only two episodes. The show saw a 27% decline in its second week and only held 50% of its lead-in (The Big Bang Theory, 3.8). In general, a 1.9 is already a so-so rating for a CBS comedy, but the retention from CBS's biggest possible lead-in is awful and there's no reason to believe that the ratings would sustain elsewhere on the schedule. The network already has 2 Broke Girls, Mike & Molly, and The Odd Couple waiting in the wings. CBS should hope that a certain Angel will bring it back From its recent comedy development Hell by the graces of
Criminal Minds: The show launched its eleventh season this week to 10 million viewers and a 2.0 demo rating, down nearly 26% from its previous season premiere and down 7% from its season 10 average. Criminal Minds is still a popular option in the 9:00 hour, even against FOX's fiercely dominant Empire and ABC's still-hip Modern Family. There is still life in this series, especially with the spinoff entering the market soon. I currently predict Criminal Minds as "Certain to be Renewed."
Code Black: The Marcia Gay Harden-led medical drama premiered to a soft 1.5 demo rating this week, down 25% from its Criminal Minds lead-in and down an identical 25% from last season's series premiere of Stalker (2.0). With little room to fall, the show hopes to pull a Secrets and Lies and remain essentially unchanged with that rating to have any chance of being considered for additional episodes. That's a hard thing to do with such a low starting point, and it will likely see an inevitable decline in the coming weeks. I will hold off on moving the drama from "On the Bubble" until it has at least been given a second opportunity to find viewers.
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What are your current predictions for the shows that have premiered so far? Feel free to share them below!