ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: Last Man Standing and Nashville Upgraded, The Muppets Downgraded

Welcome back to ABC Renew/Cancel Watch! Here are my up-to-date predictions:

Certain to be CanceledLikely to be CanceledWatchingLikely to be RenewedCertain to be Renewed
Blood & OilCastleNashvilleQuanticoGrey’s Anatomy

The Muppets
How to Get Away with MurderScandal

Fresh Off the BoatThe Middle

Dr. KenThe Goldbergs

Last Man Standing
Modern Family


Once Upon a Time

Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D

Notable Changes from Last Week

I made quite a few changes since last Friday's post. Here's a list of them:

  • Nashville upgraded from "Likely to be Cancelled" to "Watching"
  • The Muppets downgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Cancelled"
  • Last Man Standing upgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Renewed"
Why Is Nashville Back Up to "Watching"?

Last week, I moved Nashville down to "Likely to be Cancelled" only to move it back up again. Quite honestly this show is hard for me to predict; it definitely has a unique case in that the City of Nashville is paying a lot of its production costs to keep it on the air, and supposedly the show is benefitting their economy. I have also read that by filming in Nashville, it has benefitted from multiple tax breaks. 

In terms of ratings, on Wednesday, it was down two tenths in the A18-49 demo year-to-year, while its lead-in (Blackish) was down seven tenths. On the other hand, ABC really could do better in the time slot in terms of raw ratings.

Why is Last Man Standing Now "Likely to be Renewed"?

I've decided that without Last Man Standing, ABC would decide not to continue with its Friday multi-cam block and instead air something like Beyond the Tank or try a single-cam block. With that, I've decided that at least for now, Last Man Standing will no longer be lower ranked than Dr Ken on this list.

Ratings-wise, Last Man Standing was one of two shows to grow from its season premiere, and the only show to have grown both from its premiere and its second episode. With The Muppets disappointing and taking Fresh Off the Boat with it, ratings for Last Man Standing and Dr Ken are relatively good, and with the new syndication deal, the only thing that could get it cancelled would be Tim Allen's contract or the fact that ABC doesn't own it.

Why is The Muppets Now "Likely to be Cancelled"?

As mentioned above, The Muppets is a MASSIVE disappointment. ABC put a ton of promotional effort into the show, and initial response to these promos was overwhelmingly positive, yet the ratings show that many think the show in execution could be better. On just its fourth airing, it had a 1.3 A18-49 rating, and was up against neither the Democratic debate nor The Voice. In fact,
competition for it was relatively low. As it has lost over 55% of its premiere audience already, I can only imagine how low it can go, and it's not helping Fresh Off the Boat in the way it was assumed it would. ABC may give it a second chance just to break even after all the ad money they put into this, but for now I believe it will be cancelled.

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