Amazon Prime Video Renew/Cancel: Introducing the Worldwide Index to Predict I Know What You Did Last Summer, Modern Love, More

Welcome to the latest edition of Amazon Prime Video Renew/Cancel! Below you will find a table with shows currently airing on Amazon Prime Video, as well as predictions for shows that have yet to be renewed or canceled. The U.S. audience demand multiplier is reported on a rolling basis of the last 30 days, as provided by Parrot Analytics. For example, a 4.2 audience demand multiplier is 4.2 times the audience demand of the average show. This table is updated through December 18, 2021. Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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Introducing A New Table Column: Worldwide Index

Every incorrect prediction serves as a learning opportunity to further improve predictions. Over the summer, Amazon Prime Video canceled Panic, a show that at the time had a 3.9 U.S. audience demand multiplier. It was reported that Panic was canceled for not living up to the success of fellow teen drama The Wilds, a show that at the time had a 4.0 U.S. audience demand multiplier. It’s important to distinguish, though, that The Wilds was at an 11.0 a couple months after its premiere, and grew to become an international success. Panic, meanwhile, never quite matched up to that international success. 

As such, I’ve introduced the column ‘Worldwide Index.’ It’s a more numerical approach to the column ‘# of countries with at least 50% of U.S. audience demand.’ The latter category remains in the chart for curiosity purposes, but the former tells a more holistic story of how a show is doing internationally. This is especially relevant for Amazon Prime Video, a platform that has been around for several years and has a significant presence around the world. 

Source: Parrot Analytics

To best explain what the Worldwide Index is, take for example for percent of the U.S. audience demand multiplier The Wheel Of Time has in the next-best-performing countries: >To calculate the Worldwide Index, I added up the percentage point values of these counties, divided by the number of countries (14), and in turn divided that number by 100 to get a final number between 0 and 1. I then rounded to the nearest hundredth. In essence, a 0.53 Worldwide Index for The Wheel Of Time means the average audience demand of the next-best-performing 14 countries is 53% that of the U.S. audience demand multiplier. 

If this sounds confusing, don’t worry. When it comes down to it, the biggest takeaway is that a higher Worldwide Index is better than a lower Worldwide Index because it indicates higher international appeal on average. 

And now, for predictions:

I Know What You Did Last Summer
It’s been over a month since I Know What You Did Last Summer was released, and there’s been no word on if it will be back for another season. For U.S. audience demand multiplier, it’s tied for a very distant fourth place, and ranks 10th in Worldwide Index. While it has an international presence, it lags behind that of dramas with far lower multipliers. Plus, with it being more than 30 days after release date, the multiplier is more likely to go down than up in the near future. Complicating things even more for I Know What You Did Last Summer is the fact that it’s co-distributed with Sony Pictures Television. 

The only other show to be distributed by Sony and air on Amazon Prime in 2021 was Alex Rider. That show was renewed, but moved to Amazon’s IMDb TV streaming service. With IMDB TV quickly growing in original fare, it might not be a terrible idea to shift I Know What You Did Last Summer Over There. As of now, that’s what I predict will happen. 

Modern Love
It’s been over four months since Modern Love was released, and its audience demand multiplier is lower than all others for comedies reported on this table. It does, however, notch a 0.66 Worldwide Index. It’s more popular in Russia and India than it is in the United States, and remains relatively popular in a few other countries as well. It’s certainly not an obvious choice for renewal, but the appeal overseas make a compelling case. 

Tell Me Your Secrets
Tell Me Your Secrets has the same audience demand multiplier as Modern Love, despite having been released half a year prior. Its low audience demand is not compensated with a high Worldwide Index, and it can’t be a great sign that there’s been no word on it for 10 months. Amazon Prime Video isn’t shy about canceling shows, and I think Tell Me Your Secrets is in danger of being canceled more than any other show in this table. 

Kids Programming
Neither Pete The Cat nor If You Give A Mouse A Cookie have much of an international presence, so if Amazon decides between bringing back one show over the other, international success likely will not be the dealbreaker. It’s tough to predict kids’ programming given they’re less likely to interact with shows in the ways Parrot Analytics measures. When it comes to predicting kids shows, I mainly stick by how long it’s been since it’s last aired, and in this case all three shows are either currently airing or have aired within the past couple months. 

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