| Certain to be Canceled | Likely to be Canceled | Watching | Likely to be Renewed | Certain to be Renewed |
| Blood & Oil | Castle | The Muppets | Quantico | Grey’s Anatomy |
| Nashville | Last Man Standing | How to Get Away with Murder | Scandal | |
| Fresh Off the Boat | The Middle | |||
| Dr. Ken | The Goldbergs | |||
| Modern Family | ||||
| Blackish | ||||
| Once Upon a Time | ||||
| Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D |
Notable Changes from Last Week
I made quite a few changes since last Friday's post. Here's a list of them:
- Blood & Oil downgraded from "Likely to be Cancelled" to "Certain to be Cancelled"
- Nashville downgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Cancelled"
- Last Man Standing upgraded from "Likely to be Cancelled" to "Watching"
- Quantico and Fresh Off the Boat both upgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Renewed"
- Dr Ken starts off as "Likely to be Renewed"
Why is Nashville "Likely to be Cancelled"?
Nashville, throughout the summer I believed in you, and I gave you the benefit of the doubt the last couple weeks. But a 1.0 this early in the season? It's almost bound to go fractional, and is already in last place on ABC. Music sales may help the show, as does the fact that reportedly the City of Nashville is helping pay for the production costs. To see my full analysis of the pros and cons, you can find last week's article here.
Why Am I "Watching" Last Man Standing?
As aforementioned, Last Man Standing is now in the "Watching" category. It was one of only two shows this season to actually rise from its premiere number--and no, the other one surprisingly was not Empire. Maybe the strong showing from the Dr Ken premiere helped out the ratings a bit, but the show has had a history of getting an eleventh-hour renewal, so I may just wait this one out a little bit. I think it all depends on if ABC wants to continue its Friday multi-cam block...
Why Is Dr Ken "Likely to be Renewed"?
 |
| Deadline |
...which it seems like they may want to if Dr Ken fails to go fractional. A 1.5 for a premiere is certainly a strong showing, and while I don't really like calling a show anything other than "Watching" after only just one data point, I think this one in particular showed some ratings potential. It kind of reminds me of Fresh Off the Boat's start--starting high, growing from its veteran lead-in, and leveling out at still renewable numbers.
Why Is Fresh Off the Boat "Likely to be Renewed" and The Muppets Still "Watching"?
I know, who would have thought that The Muppets would have already fallen to last place in terms of ABC single-cam comedies. It is certainly a disappointment, and we're still not sure if it has leveled off or not. Its steep declines (2.9-2.0-1.7) make Fresh Off the Boat (2.0-1.7-1.8) look more impressive each week, and with Blackish starting to falter behind Modern Family, Fresh Off the Boat looks like it may have some self-starting staying power after all.
Why Is Quantico "Likely to be Renewed"?
 |
| ProjectCasting |
And who would have thought that Quantico, in the Sunday at 10 time slot, would also be out-rating The Muppets? I'm in shock that it managed to hold all of its premiere A18-49 demo in Week 2 despite Blood & Oil falling further, and it seems to be getting a really warm response from audiences and critics alike. Quantico fans: give me one more week and maybe you'll be reading a pleasant title next time. But I want to see Sunday's number first to be sure.
So there you have it! Hope you enjoyed reading this week's post. What are your thoughts on my predictions and analysis? What are your own predictions? Leave a comment below and maybe it will be featured as the Comment of the Week! If you don't yet have a Disqus profile, creating one is very simple so don't be shy, I look forward to more and more discussion.