It's time for another Renew/Cancel, as the Dick Wolf empire takes center stage again, with three of his shows marking correct predictions, and another looking more secure than it has all season.
Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.14, 0.11-0.18)
Leans Cancellation:
The Hunting Party (0.16, 0.10-0.22)
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.20, 0.11-0.61)
The Wall (0.16, 0.12-0.19)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.25, 0.20-0.29)
The Voice (0.29, 0.19-0.42)
Certain Renewal:
Dateline NBC (0.19, 0.15-0.20)
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (0.48, 0.25-1.38)
Law & Order: SVU (0.30, 0.21-0.33)
Saturday Night Live (0.64, 0.43-0.91)
Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire (0.34, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Happy's Place (0.25, 0.18-0.33)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.24-0.37)
Law & Order: Law & Order hasn't aired the last few weeks due to March Madness competition, but during the time away, I've still begun to feel a bit more positive about its chances. While NBC does still have quite a crowded schedule, and they are developing a new Dick Wolf series, it's April, and I think the ship may be sailing on a Law & Order cancellation for this season. While it's not nearly as important for NBC as its spinoff SVU or the just-renewed Chicagos, NBC has still been treating Law & Order as a very important series for them, just this fall planning a fan event in honor of its 35th anniversary. It's still promoted on a fairly regular basis, and there's no clear sign that NBC is cooling on the series. They still support it the same as they have the last few seasons, and they're not acting like a network that's ready to move on from it.
It is true that Law & Order is easily Dick Wolf's worst-performing NBC series. It never shows up in the delayed multiplatform ratings, and it's always the worst performer of the five on Peacock. Peacock has impacted NBC's multiplatform ratings in general, so we rarely get multiplatform updates (unlike ABC and CBS, whose shows often rank among the top 20, thus giving us a peak at how their shows are performing when Nielsen drops MP+7 ratings). We do know that last year, Law & Order was the least-watched returning drama on NBC in MP+35 ratings, just 100k viewers ahead of the canceled linear flop The Irrational. That was what prompted me to give it such a harsh prediction all season, and it's why I still view it as semi-vulnerable.
That being said, Dick Wolf was famously furious when NBC canned the show during its original run without advanced notice. Wolf's influence and importance to NBC has only grown since then. Law & Order is also rating much better compared to the rest of the network than it was back when it was canceled (that season, it averaged just 58% of the average rating for a broadcast series. This season is averaging 82% of the average broadcast rating). I would expect NBC to give Wolf and his team advanced notice about wrapping the show up this time around, barring a massive ratings drop. With most broadcast shows already wrapped for the season or preparing to wrap, I think it's a safe bet that Law & Order will come back, especially with its most recent ratings all being higher than the poor showings we saw from it in the fall.
I think Law & Order will be back next year, and if NBC's not that pleased with its performance, or if they just want to open up a prime time slot, we'll see it shifted to a later hour or a midseason premiere rather than an outright cancellation. Law & Order is a likely renewal.
One Chicago: In an unsurprising turn of events, NBC renewed the Chicago series last Friday, securing their strongest night will be back. While I'm still unsure of just how long this lineup will be together, it was pretty clear that they'd all be returning this year - and the early decision is a pretty good sign that they're all starting off next season on solid ground, too.
NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness:
It was another week of fierce competition in the NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness tournament, and the Elite Eight is now the Final Four. Once again, we had some obvious voting shenanigans, with the voting analytics showing an instant drop of nearly thirty votes for both Law & Order and Law & Order: SVU. That sort of activity hints strongly at voting bots being used, and those votes have been tossed out. Despite that, Law & Order: SVU still easily advances to the next round, triumphing over Chicago Med. Stumble continues a Cinderella run, easily knocking off #2 seed Reggie Dinkins. St. Denis Medical also advances, clearly beating Chicago Fire - which took it out in last year's tournament in this same round. And in the fourth matchup, #1 seed SNL hangs on against Law & Order.
The Final Four will see SNL and St. Denis Medical, two comedies, facing off. It'll mean that an NBC comedy will make the championship game for the first time in tournament history. SVU will make a run for a third-straight title, facing Stumble. If Stumble emerges on top, a comedy victory will be assured this season, and defeating SVU would surely make a statement.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | St. Denis Medical | Reggie Dinkins | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||
| Tues | NBA on NBC | |||||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | The Hunting Party | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Stumble | Dateline NBC | |||
| Sat | Encores | |||||
| Sun | Sunday Night Basketball | |||||
