FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Rosewood Is Likely To Be Cancelled

Welcome to the FOX Renew/Cancel Watch! 

FOX Scripted Average So Far: 1.62
FOX Scripted Average So Far Excluding Empire: 1.31
FOX Scripted Average This Week (From Last Wednesday To This Tuesday) Without Empire: 1.09

Note: Only includes ratings up to 10/14

Certain Renewal

  • Empire (5.5 / 4.7)
  • Family Guy (1.5 / 1.4)
  • The Simpsons (1.8 / 1.7) (Renewed)
  • Gotham (1.5 / 1.3)

Likely Renewal

  • Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5 / 1.2)
  • Bones (1.3 / 1.1)

  • Bob's Burgers (1.1 / 1.0) (Renewed)
  • Scream Queens (1.2 / 1.0)
  • Grandfathered (1.2 / 1.0)
  • The Last Man on Earth (1.3 / 1.0)
Likely Cancellation
  • The Grinder (1.1 / 0.9)
  • Sleepy Hollow (0.9 / 0.8)
  • Rosewood (1.9 / 1.4)

Certain Cancellation

  • Minority Report (0.8 / 0.6)
In week 4 of the season, FOX is still sinking and has shown no signs of stabilizing with just a 1.1 scripted average (without Empire) for the week. At this rate, the average will be sub-1.0 by the start of November Sweeps.

Rosewood was given a backorder by FOX recently, and while this keeps the show in the renewal race, the continued drops have convinced me to mve Rosewood back to likely to be canceled. The trajectory so far is not looking good: 2.4-2.0-1.8-1.4. It's down to almost half its premiere! It's clear that Empire pre-tune is boosting the show and the 1.2 in this weeks 8:00 PM half hour makes me believe that in true strength Scream Queens, Grandfathered, and maybe even The Grinder are stronger or match Rosewood. At least those shows have seemed to stabilized while Rosewood has not shown any signs of stopping.

Scream Queens and Grandfathered hung around 1.0 for another week, and due to the sad state of FOX this is enough for them to be on the "bubble". Scream Queens seems to look better and better as its decent increase in available C3 numbers and young skewing demos may push it to the top of a crowded bubble.

The Last Man on Earth dropped another two tenths from an already weak 1.2 from last week, likely due to a smaller Bob's Burgers leadin. This is not the same show that showed potential back in March, and it is now on par with the Tuesday comedies.

What are your predictions? Leave them in the comments below.

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