CBS Renew/Cancel Week 7: Rethinking the Need for NCIS: Origins

The Ratings Junkie

Below are the Week 7 predictions for CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. Underneath is this week’s poll as well as an interactive schedule, which can be used to fill out and share your own predictions. Let us know what you think in the comments!

Prediction Change
-NCIS: Origins is downgraded from Leans Renew to Tilts Renew

Key

Week 7 Predictions

NCIS: Origins

NCIS: Origins is part of a larger pattern on CBS’s schedule: cancel shows that are performing okay, but may not be living up to their costs, and replace them with shows that on paper are similar but presumably cheaper. It’s working for Matlock, which replaced the canceled legal drama So Help Me Todd, and Poppa’s House, which replaced the canceled multi-cam Bob Hearts Abishola. At first, it was also looking like it was working for NCIS: Origins, which replaced canceled NCIS spinoff NCIS: Hawai’i. Now, it’s not so clear if that’s the case.

NCIS: Origins premiered solidly enough, scoring a 0.33 rating in the Adults 18-49 demo in Live + Same Day viewing and up 53% in 7-day streaming from the Season 3 premiere of NCIS: Hawai’i over the same time period. Origins even rose the following week in linear ratings even as NCIS declined, scoring 90% retention from the mothership. NCIS: Origins made a very early case for renewal, one that indicated CBS’s strategy is working.

Since those first two weeks, NCIS: Origins’ case for renewal has been less clear. Its linear ratings have declined in all but one of the subsequent four airings — and even when it rose, and looked worse than the previous week compared to NCIS. Its most recent airing on November 25 scored just a 0.22 rating in the key Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 demo, which was less than 65% retention from NCIS. Compare that with NCIS: Hawai’i, which averaged a 0.35 rating and 83% retention from NCIS last season. Origins’ 0.22 ties for the lowest a scripted series has rated on CBS so far this season, and causes it to become one of their lowest-rated scripted series on average. For what it’s worth, it’s also CBS’s least-watched drama in linear ratings, and has been missing from Paramount+’s Top 10 list since November 12.

At the rate it’s going, NCIS: Origins could be the first NCIS series ever to be canceled after just a single season. However, it’s not there just yet. It’s still early enough that the ratings could rebound, and is a presumably rather inexpensive spinoff in a cash cow franchise. It’s also the only remaining NCIS spinoff that can produce enough episodes to air throughout the entire TV season, barring an unexpected development with Sydney. Ultimately though, the ratings need to rebound a bit because as we saw with CSI: Vegas, being part of a lucrative franchise can only save a show for so long.

FBI: Most Wanted and The Neighborhood

Should NCIS: Origins continue to self-destruct, CBS would have another open spot on the schedule. That could be good news for FBI: Most Wanted, which so far has been predicted to be in its final season. It’s officially cleared the 88 episode threshold needed be seen attracted to potential buyers in syndication, and is a strong contender for a deal considering FBI is in syndication. That gives NBCUniversal an incentive to lower the licensing fee should CBS be weary of renewing it. If CBS finds themselves having to plug a hole left by NCIS: Origins, they may find it easier to just leave the FBI night alone for now. It’s not a strong long-term plan to hand off an entire night to a franchise one has only partial ownership in though, especially when the spin-offs do not stream in their entirety on Paramount+ and bring in mediocre ratings.

Another option should NCIS: Origins face cancelation could be to expand the Monday comedy block to two hours, and slide NCIS to 10 pm. Should that also include maintaining the Thursday comedy hour, this would boost The Neighborhood’s chances of renewal tremendously, and also perhaps put Poppa’s House in a better position as well.

However, there are marketing expenses that come with canceling a show and replacing it with a new one. CBS is unlikely to cancel the vast majority of their 10 pm lineup, and arguably unlikely to spare only Elsbeth. It’s also unclear if a comedy expansion is the way to go, given Poppa’s House’s solid performance on CBS but underperformance on Paramount+. As it stands right now, FBI: Most Wanted and The Neighborhood still find themselves in the red.

Poll

Interactive Schedule

To make your own predictions, you can use the interactive schedule any time below. Click on the prediction you would like to make, then tap on the show. For example, if you agree with me that Ghosts is a Certain Renewal, tap on the green ‘Certain’, then tap on Ghosts and it will fill in the time slot accordingly. If you would like to share, you can do this by selecting ‘Save Screenshot’ and ‘Download’. Then drag and drop the image to the comments, or save it to your device and upload it to the comments.

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	9:30	10:00
Mon	The Neighborhood	Poppa’s House	NCIS		NCIS: Origins
Tues	FBI		FBI: International		FBI: Most Wanted
Wed	Survivor			The Summit
Thurs	Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage	Ghosts	Matlock		Elsbeth
Fri	S.W.A.T.		Fire Country		Blue Bloods
Sun	Tracker		The Equalizer		Encores