Welcome to the latest edition of FOX Renew/Cancel! As May approaches, it's time to take a closer look into where shows stand.
The Real and Relative Ad Rates
The (Relative) Ratings
The Table
Analysis
Of Rosewood's final 5 episodes, 4 of its ratings were 0.5s, while one was a 0.6. It's down 51% in raw ratings year-to-year, and if it's renewed, chances are it's getting two full seasons. We've seen through Hell's Kitchen that shows that are presumably cheaper can garner a higher ad rate and get higher ratings in that time slot. The main thing it has going for it is the fact that it repeats well, consistently barely below where its originals rate.
I was also thinking about how the ad rates have typically better described shows that are a little bit older, and should apply more to Sleepy Hollow or New Girl than to Rosewood. It incorrectly predicted a renewal of The Mysteries of Laura and Undateable last season.
A possibility is they shift it to Fridays at 9pm and air Hell's Kitchen before it, but something about the thought of Rosewood airing two more full seasons seems unrealistic to me. Of course, it's all down to the profits, but is it really making one, and can it make one in the future?
Also, given the DVR numbers, it probably doesn't have that great of a C3 or C7 bump, and FOX is the first network to tell you that they look into that. Now, hopefully I'm not having a little crisis as we head into the month of May, but right now it's hard to justify a renewal without knowing more.
Of course, this prediction could change. I think the key thing that will help me decide is seeing how Lucifer repeats there next week.
Also, there's Shots Fired to discuss. While I initially predicted a likely renewal, the ratings are pretty low, especially given the time slot. Since it is a limited series, it does have a chance of being rebooted and maybe seeing a summer 2018 run, but I wouldn't bet on it. Stay tuned to see if it ticks up in the ratings and if I have a positive change in heart.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!
The Real and Relative Ad Rates
| Show | Ad Rate | RELATIVE |
| Bob's Burgers | 65019 | 53 |
| The Simpsons | 155838 | 126 |
| Son of Zorn | 126053 | 102 |
| Family Guy | 129428 | 105 |
| The Last Man On Earth | 101895 | 83 |
| Gotham | 122680 | 99 |
| Lucifer | 111063 | 90 |
| Brooklyn Nine-Nine | 101803 | 82 |
| New Girl | 102329 | 83 |
| Scream Queens | 121438 | 98 |
| Lethal Weapon | 164853 | 134 |
| Empire | 442413 | 358 |
| Rosewood | 71881 | 58 |
| Pitch | 95728 | 78 |
| Hell's Kitchen | 77561 | 63 |
| The Exorcist | 50551 | 41 |
| Making History | 81035 | 66 |
| 24: Legacy | 138720 | 112 |
| APB | 115128 | 93 |
| The Mick | 103573 | 84 |
| Bones | 96459 | 78 |
| Shots Fired | 140132 | 113 |
| Star | 240572 | 195 |
| Prison Break | 131766 | 107 |
| Kicking and Screaming | 102516 | 83 |
| MasterChef Junior | 86609 | 70 |
| Sleepy Hollow | 56860 | 46 |
The (Relative) Ratings
The Table
Analysis
Of Rosewood's final 5 episodes, 4 of its ratings were 0.5s, while one was a 0.6. It's down 51% in raw ratings year-to-year, and if it's renewed, chances are it's getting two full seasons. We've seen through Hell's Kitchen that shows that are presumably cheaper can garner a higher ad rate and get higher ratings in that time slot. The main thing it has going for it is the fact that it repeats well, consistently barely below where its originals rate.
I was also thinking about how the ad rates have typically better described shows that are a little bit older, and should apply more to Sleepy Hollow or New Girl than to Rosewood. It incorrectly predicted a renewal of The Mysteries of Laura and Undateable last season.
A possibility is they shift it to Fridays at 9pm and air Hell's Kitchen before it, but something about the thought of Rosewood airing two more full seasons seems unrealistic to me. Of course, it's all down to the profits, but is it really making one, and can it make one in the future?
Also, given the DVR numbers, it probably doesn't have that great of a C3 or C7 bump, and FOX is the first network to tell you that they look into that. Now, hopefully I'm not having a little crisis as we head into the month of May, but right now it's hard to justify a renewal without knowing more.
Of course, this prediction could change. I think the key thing that will help me decide is seeing how Lucifer repeats there next week.
Also, there's Shots Fired to discuss. While I initially predicted a likely renewal, the ratings are pretty low, especially given the time slot. Since it is a limited series, it does have a chance of being rebooted and maybe seeing a summer 2018 run, but I wouldn't bet on it. Stay tuned to see if it ticks up in the ratings and if I have a positive change in heart.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!
