FOX Renew/Cancel: A Change in Heart on Rosewood

Welcome to the latest edition of FOX Renew/Cancel! As May approaches, it's time to take a closer look into where shows stand.

The Real and Relative Ad Rates

ShowAd RateRELATIVE
Bob's Burgers6501953
The Simpsons155838126
Son of Zorn126053102
Family Guy129428105
The Last Man On Earth10189583
Gotham12268099
Lucifer11106390
Brooklyn Nine-Nine10180382
New Girl10232983
Scream Queens12143898
Lethal Weapon164853134
Empire442413358
Rosewood7188158
Pitch9572878
Hell's Kitchen7756163
The Exorcist5055141
Making History8103566
24: Legacy 138720112
APB11512893
The Mick10357384
Bones9645978
Shots Fired140132113
Star240572195
Prison Break131766107
Kicking and Screaming 10251683
MasterChef Junior8660970
Sleepy Hollow5686046


The (Relative) Ratings



The Table


Analysis
Of Rosewood's final 5 episodes, 4 of its ratings were 0.5s, while one was a 0.6. It's down 51% in raw ratings year-to-year, and if it's renewed, chances are it's getting two full seasons. We've seen through Hell's Kitchen that shows that are presumably cheaper can garner a higher ad rate and get higher ratings in that time slot. The main thing it has going for it is the fact that it repeats well, consistently barely below where its originals rate.

I was also thinking about how the ad rates have typically better described shows that are a little bit older, and should apply more to Sleepy Hollow or New Girl than to Rosewood. It incorrectly predicted a renewal of The Mysteries of Laura and Undateable last season.

A possibility is they shift it to Fridays at 9pm and air Hell's Kitchen before it, but something about the thought of Rosewood airing two more full seasons seems unrealistic to me. Of course, it's all down to the profits, but is it really making one, and can it make one in the future?

Also, given the DVR numbers, it probably doesn't have that great of a C3 or C7 bump, and FOX is the first network to tell you that they look into that. Now, hopefully I'm not having a little crisis as we head into the month of May, but right now it's hard to justify a renewal without knowing more.

Of course, this prediction could change. I think the key thing that will help me decide is seeing how Lucifer repeats there next week.

Also, there's Shots Fired to discuss. While I initially predicted a likely renewal, the ratings are pretty low, especially given the time slot. Since it is a limited series, it does have a chance of being rebooted and maybe seeing a summer 2018 run, but I wouldn't bet on it. Stay tuned to see if it ticks up in the ratings and if I have a positive change in heart.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!

TV Ratings 4/29/17: Training Day Slips in New Timeslot

Saturday Ratings

NHL

Time
Show
18-49 Rating
Total Viewers      (In Millions)
8:00pm
NHL Hockey: Penguins at Capitals (NBC)
0.9
2.54

Dreamgirls (ABC)
0.4
2.17

Training Day (CBS)
0.3
2.66

MasterChef Junior (R) (FOX)
0.3
0.91




9:00pm
48 Hours (CBS)
0.6
3.85

MasterChef Junior (R) (FOX)
0.3
1.01




10:00pm
48 Hours (CBS)
0.7
4.39

CBS's Training Day (0.3) was down a tenth from last week after moving up an hour from 9 pm to 8. It led into two strong 48 Hours (0.6/0.7). The second episode was up a tenth versus last week's 10 pm installment. 

NBC's hockey game (0.9) easily took the lead and even outperformed its Friday night line-up.

ABC aired the movie Dreamgirls (0.4), it had passable results for Saturday filler.

FOX had anemic encores of MasterChef Junior (0.3/0.3). 


Special Review: Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life

It's not often I find myself watching a family friendly movie outside the superhero and animated genres but when a movie has a cast of great comedians such as Lauren Graham and Andy Daly, it provided me with enough curiosity to check it out.



The story is about Rafe Khatchadorian, an aspiring artist starting middle school after being expelled from his previous school. Along with his friend Leo, he decides to break every single rule in the school's code of conduct.

I'll be honest. I randomly saw this on Netflix and decided to take a leap of faith on this. And as I expected, it's pretty cheesy. In fact there are a whole bunch of school related movie clichés such as:

. Bully who redeems himself
. Necessary Romantic love interest
. Mean teacher who serves as antagonist
. Scene stealing sibling
. Quirky mom
. Happy ending

But despite my complaints, I still found the movie to be enjoyable. It had heart (whatever that means) and it was kinda funny. Plus it had a plot twist which I seriously did not see coming. Not to mention in the second half it got a little dark, but not dark enough to really alter the overall tone of the movie.

And lastly, I think the casting for this movie was pretty good. Griffin Gluck as Rafe handled being a frustrated teen rather well. And Andy Daly as the principal was great too. I had no idea he could pull off being a villain but he really pulled through. My only problem with the casting was Adam Pally as Rafe's teacher who I felt was underutilized but he did fine with whatever scenes he had.

Overall, this movie was pretty good despite its aforementioned issues. If you have 90 minutes to spare with your family this movie serves as a nice way to spend some time together. (Or if you want to watch it alone, that's cool too)

Quote of the special: 'I don't know what stinks more, your attitude or my suit'

TV Ratings 4/28/17: Rosewood Ends on a Low Note, Blue Bloods & Hawaii Five-0 Sink to Lows

Friday Ratings

FOX 

Time
Show
18-49 Rating
Total Viewers (In Millions)
8:00pm
Undercover Boss (CBS)
0.8
5.35

First Dates (NBC)
0.7
3.22

The Toy Box (ABC)
0.6
2.69

Rosewood (F) (FOX)
0.5
2.90

The Originals (CW)
0.3
0.96




9:00pm
Hawaii Five-0 (CBS)
0.9
7.87

Dateline NBC (NBC)
0.8
4.15

Let it Fall: LA 1982-1992 (ABC)
0.6
2.48

Lethal Weapon (R) (FOX)
0.4
1.91

Reign (CW)
0.2
0.69




10:00pm
Blue Bloods (CBS)
0.8
8.47

(R) = repeat


With MacGyver done for the season, CBS installed Undercover Boss (0.8) in its timeslot. It definitely wasn't a bad performance and was the highest rated program for the 8 pm hour. Whether Boss's fault or not, Hawaii Five-0 (0.9) and Blue Bloods (0.8) crashed to new lows, down a tenth and two-tenths respectively. Even then, Hawaii was the highest program of the night.

ABC's The Toy Box (0.6) was steady with last week but a documentary about the LA riots (0.6) was a significant downgrade from the Shark Tank/20/20 combo.

NBC's Dateline (0.8) took a disturbing three-tenth dip despite its lead-in, First Dates (0.7), remaining even.

FOX's Rosewood (0.5) inched down on finale night leading into a repeat of Lethal Weapon (0.4).

It was as steady as could be for The CW as The Originals (0.3) and Reign (0.2) were even with their last originals after taking last week off.



FOX Renew/Cancel: May Is Approaching, What's In Store?

Welcome to the latest edition of FOX Renew/Cancel! As May approaches, it's time to take a closer look into where shows stand.

The Real and Relative Ad Rates

ShowAd RateRELATIVE
Bob's Burgers6501953
The Simpsons155838126
Son of Zorn126053102
Family Guy129428105
The Last Man On Earth10189583
Gotham12268099
Lucifer11106390
Brooklyn Nine-Nine10180382
New Girl10232983
Scream Queens12143898
Lethal Weapon164853134
Empire442413358
Rosewood7188158
Pitch9572878
Hell's Kitchen7756163
The Exorcist5055141
Making History8103566
24: Legacy 138720112
APB11512893
The Mick10357384
Bones9645978
Shots Fired140132113
Star240572195
Prison Break131766107
Kicking and Screaming 10251683
MasterChef Junior8660970
Sleepy Hollow5686046


The (Relative) Ratings



The Table




New Girl vs. Brooklyn Nine-Nine vs. The Last Man On Earth
All three comedies are above their target, which while not a perfect indicator of if a show will be renewed or canceled, is one of the most accurate tools we can use with publicly available data. In addition, all three shows are either at 88 or 89 percent of FOX's average, so they're basically all in the same situation if you look just at the Live + Same Day ratings.

New Girl has the advantage of being produced by FOX and having a syndication deal, though it's likely the most expensive one of the bunch and its unknown if the cast needs to work out contracts. Also, it has seen lead-out The Mick regularly grow from it, so it's not providing the exact lead-in support that a show would like. The same goes for Brooklyn Nine-Nine; after a decent fall, it's returned to steady 0.7s to start off Tuesday night, putting it behind The CW in the ratings. It does have a five-season syndication deal with TBS, though, which tells me that it's getting renewed. On FOX? Maybe not. But I'd expect a 5th season somewhere. Finally, there's The Last Man On Earth, which has the lead-in of all of them, though has shown to be lead-in independent at this point in its run. Holding at steady 0.8s, it's the highest-rated of the three Lord Miller Productions shows.

FOX already has the animated trio returning, presumably in the fall, and The Mick joining them, there is little room left. At this point, I'm thinking The Last Man On Earth and New Girl will be back on FOX, while Brooklyn Nine-Nine will air its fifth season somewhere else.

Rosewood
Many think that Rosewood was moved to Friday so that it can get to syndication, or four full seasons. It's just as plausible though that it was moved to Friday simply to get out of the way of the weekday, air out its order, and go away. The Live + Same Day ratings certainly aren't anything to brag about, nor are the DVR numbers. It does repeat well, though, which could show potential syndicators value. Rosewood will test how much networks want to get shows with two full seasons to syndication.

24: Legacy
FOX brass openly admitted that 24: Legacy didn't do as well as they expected it to, and they weren't alone. Another round of the 24 spin-off wouldn't surprise me, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we don't hear word about it come May.

What do you think of my predictions? Let me know in the comments below!