Predictions for 10/01/22
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| Photo Credit: Fox |
Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. Since the previous update, six sitcoms have entered the table, with the Sunday four being heavily inflated by football. On the other hand, the Thursday comedies begin at the very bottom of the roster. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column.
Call Me Kat: The Fox network has all the Nielsen data needed to know that 'Call Me Kat' is a far stronger performer than 'Welcome to Flatch' in the 18-49 demographic. Despite that, they decided to move this third-season sitcom from 9PM to 9:30, placing it at the bottom of an hour led by the much weaker 'Flatch'. Though 'Kat' was able to improve on its unreliable lead-in by two-hundredths, the 0.20 rating it posted for its return serves as a series low for the program. Between the timeslot downgrade and the fact that it was not gifted an NFL boost on premiere night like years past, it seems like this series is no longer a priority for the higher-ups. 'Kat' deserves some praise for building on its lead-in, but it did not grow nearly enough from 'Flatch' to be considered a solid performer. Due to these factors, 'Call Me Kat' is Likely to be Canceled unless it shows signs of improvement in the near future.
Welcome to Flatch: In 2020, Fox handed comedy series 'The Moodys' a season two renewal despite the program's shortcomings in the Nielsen department. The series aired five episodes of its second season before being yanked off the schedule and canceled, with its remaining three installments being dumped in the dead of summer. In 2021, Fox renewed low-rated 'Duncanville for a third season before it even aired season two. They then canceled the cartoon without even airing the six episodes left of its third-season order. Fox's habit of renewing meager performers and then coming down with a case of buyer's remorse is evident, with 'Welcome to Flatch' likely to become the next show to be part of this trend. 'Flatch' debuted with a pathetic 0.18 rating for its second season premiere and lost more than half of its 'Hell's Kitchen' lead-in (0.39). This is the lowest-rated show on the big 4 networks and has no discernable online buzz. Though it cannot be counted out altogether because of Fox's bizarre history of renewing duds, 'Flatch' is Likely to be Canceled because of its horrific Nielsen ratings.
The Simpsons: Since it airs directly after 'The OT' on select evenings, 'The Simpsons' always receives the most NFL help of the shows in the Sunday animation block. As a result of the football juice pumped into it, the sitcom soared to a massive 1.41 rating for its season 34 premiere. This is more than two-tenths higher than last year's premiere and makes it the highest-rated scripted program on broadcast television...for now. When it has to air on nights without football help, America's favorite yellow family will likely find itself in the much weaker (albeit still acceptable) 0.3-0.5 range. Because this NFL-boosted 1.4 is higher than any rating it posted last season, this long-running cartoon is Certain to be Renewed.
The Great North: Per Deadline, 'The Great North' was Renewed for a fourth season before season three even debuted. Though it retained a lackluster 53% of its 'Simpsons' lead-in, Fox clearly wants this middling player to stick around for a little while longer.
Bob's Burgers: 'Bob's' lost a little too much from 'The Great North' on premiere night, especially for a 9PM anchor. The Belcher family began season 13 by posting a fairly solid 0.57 rating but lost over 20% of the 'Great North' demo (0.75). Despite that, the show's true strength will likely become clear on nights when the football boost is absent. It usually ends up besting both 'Simpsons' and 'North' when those two are not reaping the benefits of NFL, meaning that the series is Certain to be Renewed.
Family Guy: Though this series receives the least NFL help of the four cartoons, season 21 began with a solid 0.50, a rating only eight-hundredths below its season 20 launch (0.58). 'Family Guy' has clearly become a weaker show since Fox plugged it into the undesirable 9:30PM timeslot, but it remains a sturdy player for the network. The Griffin family is Certain to be Renewed for the time being.
9-1-1: '9-1-1' dropped by close to a full tenth from its premiere rating in week 2, going from a 0.69 rating to a 0.60 in the Adults 18-49 demographic. Though this serves as a new series low for the juggernaut, it remains one of the most reliable dramas on broadcast television. '9-1-1' continues to be Certain to be Renewed.
Monarch: 'Monarch' pulled off the unthinkable in week 2, rising by three-hundredths to a 0.24 rating even as its 'Resident' lead-in (0.33) declined by two. Though it does appear stronger than it did a week ago, it is still not performing well enough to secure an upgrade. 'Monarch' remains Likely to be Canceled but may be promoted to a higher category if it continues this upward trajectory.
Poll of the Week
Will 'Call Me Kat' be renewed?
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What do you think of these predictions? As always, leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
