Nearly a month after releasing their schedule, NBC has finally made their last decision of the season. That means it's time to take a look back at this year on NBC, which saw four shows canceled as the network prepares to revamp their schedule next year.
Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (Canceled 5/1)
Leans Cancellation:
Stumble (Canceled 5/1)
The Wall (Fate TBD; announcement unlikely anytime soon)
Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (Renewed 5/8)
Likely Renewal:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (Renewed 5/5)
Happy's Place (Renewed 2/2)
St. Denis Medical (Renewed 2/2)
The Voice (Renewed 5/11)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (Renewed 3/27)
Chicago Med (Renewed 3/27)
Chicago PD (Renewed 3/27)
Dateline NBC (Renewed 5/11)
Law & Order: SVU (Officially renewed 4/16)
Saturday Night Live (Renewed 5/11)
The Hunting Party was the decision that NBC really dragged their feet on. It's easy to see why it was their toughest decision. It was a linear ratings bust, with just a 0.16 average. That's barely any higher than Brilliant Minds, which was outright pulled from the schedule until it could be burned off in the summer. NBC outright admitted this last month, when NBC exec Jeff Bader stated that NBC is looking to grow NBC's linear ratings from what The Hunting Party was delivering. Despite that, it did well on streaming, especially Netflix, where it spent weeks in the top ten despite being an acquired series. It still looked pretty unlikely that streaming would save it - at least on NBC - but NBC still took their time to make a decision on it, implying that there was at least some life in it. We don't know the exact details of its streaming performance, but it seems like in the end, it just wasn't strong enough to offset what a first-run ratings loser the show was. It looked unlikely to be renewed for a third season from the very moment it was renewed for a second season, and my likely cancellation prediction proved correct, though it was briefly upgraded to a leans cancellation prediction for a few weeks after being added to Netflix, which was probably when its pulse was strongest this season.
Stumble was another one I had some trouble with this season. Its premiere was pretty weak, and I had it pegged as being on the wrong side of the bubble from the start. Still, NBC has been quite generous with freshman comedies in recent years, with Extended Family being their only one-and-done comedy in the last five years. If it held up well enough, it could have a chance. And ultimately, it did hold up decently well. With NBC trying a lot to save it, including a post-Olympics airing and Monday night repeats behind St. Denis Medical, I decided to upgrade it, especially as it began to show a bit of strength on Peacock. Eventually, I felt the tide turning against it again, as NBC picked up several comedy pilots, including two that would be a perfect match with Happy's Place. With Stumble seemingly losing its slot, and not really being strong enough to warrant an upgrade to Monday, cancellation just felt like the logical option here, though it really did get the short end of the stick, airing in an undesirable Friday 8:30 slot behind a show it wasn't at all compatible with. It's clear Reggie Dinkins was their priority in this new comedy class, so Stumble's cancellation wasn't all too surprising.
Speaking of Reggie Dinkins, it was a show I was always pretty confident would be renewed. Even before it premiered, NBC seemed to favor it, with a post-NFL launch and a pretty good time slot. It also came from creative minds that NBC loves: 30 Rock creator Robert Carlock created it, and fellow 30 Rock creator Tina Fey produced it. None of their shows for NBC have ever been canceled after a single season, even when they absolutely could (and should) have been based on their ratings. I didn't think Reggie Dinkins, with a high-profile cast of Tracy Morgan and Daniel Radcliffe, would be the first. I certainly didn't think it was a possibility after its strong one-hour time slot premiere, which was unaffected by the first episode having aired the prior month. It stayed pretty strong in the early weeks, and I upgraded it to a certain renewal. It then dropped pretty quickly, and I downgraded it back to a likely renewal, trying to avoid being overly confident, though still pretty sure it would, indeed, be renewed. It took longer than I expected, but it did get that renewal, and it'll also be back much earlier than I expected, with a fall schedule spot.
Brilliant Minds looked like the less questionable of NBC's two freshman renewals last year, but it still wasn't a very strong show, and it definitely felt unlikely that it would get lucky again. NBC brought it back in the fall with plans for a full season. Those plans quickly looked pretty foolish, as it returned to a new series low. After how long it was off the air, and how low-rated it was to begin, this was always bound to happen. Still, it remained on the schedule, sinking further and further. It ultimately found itself as TV's lowest-rated show, lower than even the weakest of Fox shows or some of CBS's low-rated reality filler. I had it as a likely cancellation, trying to avoid a downgrade after I'd previously (wrongly) had it as a certain cancellation the prior season. Then came the news that NBC was yanking it from the schedule, set to return at a then-unnamed future date. They also cut the episode order by two episodes. It was obvious this show was flatlining. Naturally, it was downgraded to a certain cancellation, and that cancellation was confirmed a few months later. It returned just a few weeks ago, and has actually performed much better than it was performing at 10 PM, showing just how important an 8 PM time slot is - and how unreliable first-run ratings can be.
Law & Order began the season on the bubble, after a season of OK linear ratings in the 2024-25 season, but a poor overall performance in multiplatform ratings. It's a show seemingly kept alive by its Dick Wolf ties and its 8 PM time slot, and is not all that strong overall. Still, it did feel more likely than not that NBC wouldn't abruptly cancel it. It was that thought process that led me to upgrade it to likely renewal status. Then, I had some doubts about the show, as every other Dick Wolf show got a renewal and Law & Order was left waiting. It seemed like Law & Order might be competing with NBC's many drama pilots for a renewal, especially with its Thursday at 8 time slot being quite an attractive location to schedule a new series. Law & Order's fate remained up in the air until pretty much the last minute, only officially securing a renewal on the Friday before NBC announced their fall schedule.
St. Denis Medical: I felt pretty good about St. Denis Medical's renewal chances heading into this season, but even I was surprised by just how strong it returned after having a pretty rough spring run in season one. It really proved its strength this season, and it earned its early renewal, which came in early February. It was renewed just as I planned to give it an, admittedly overdue, upgrade to certain renewal status, being renewed alongside Happy's Place, which also spent the full season as a likely renewal (and likely would've remained there).
Law & Order: SVU: It was no surprise when SVU was renewed this year, but the renewal announcement did contain a surprise in itself: its renewal was not a new development by any stretch. The long-running hit had apparently received a two-season pickup the previous year, which NBC never disclosed. It's easy to understand why, as SVU is one of NBC's best streaming performers, and it remains a valuable linear performer, too. It was, of course, considered a certain renewal leading up to that announcement.
The One Chicago franchise: Chicago Med, Fire, and PD were again considered certain renewals this season. The question of just how long the franchise can last continues to loom over it, but NBC had much bigger issues to handle this year. Their stranglehold on an entire night of programming continues to limit what NBC can do with their scheduling, as all of their top dramas are essentially forced to air together rather than being used to lead in to any new programs. It also leaves just Monday and Thursday open as viable nights to air any new programming. If these shows see a decline in upcoming seasons, NBC could eventually decide to dial back on the franchise or move on altogether. But that was never happening this season, and it probably won't happen in the immediate future, either.
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon: It was the only new reality show on NBC's schedule this season, and it was pretty quickly forgotten, after NBC doubled up on episodes on Tuesdays before the NBA made its grand return to NBC primetime. With just a 0.17 average despite airing some episodes at 8 PM, NBC had little reason to bother bringing back this failed experiment. It became all the more clear when a civilian Traitors season and Destination X both announced filming dates that would put them on target for an in-season debut. In the end, though, NBC isn't even bothering to replace On Brand next season. The Voice will be the only program airing Tuesdays before the NBA, while they're not airing anything on Friday nights before the comedies premiere. The Traitors will take Thursday nights, and Destination X seems bound for midseason, or even a summer launch filmed very early.
The Voice: NBC's long-successful singing show has become a real problem for them as of late. Its spring season was a total dud despite bringing back popular coaches. Its fall season wasn't much of a success, either, only averaging a few hundredths more than the spring run. Both seasons dropped over 30% from their corresponding seasons in the 2024-25 season. That's not good, especially given the expense of producing a show like The Voice. The spring season employed some major budget cuts, including having only three coaches and pre-filming the entire season, but the audience didn't seem to appreciate those changes, based on how much it dropped. It'll be back next season in the fall, and possibly in spring as well, but NBC really needs to quickly figure out something new for Monday nights, because The Voice's heyday is long past. A move to just one cycle per season might help slow the bleeding, but the damage has mostly been done. It remains to be seen whether The Voice can actually remain profitable for NBC for much longer.
In the end, this was a very strong season for my predictions. After missing some crucial shows last year, I had a 15-0 record this year, with Stumble and The Hunting Party's cancellations being crucial. Next year should be a bit more difficult, with two new dramas, an endangered Law & Order, and sophomore Reggie Dinkins all being potentially-tough calls. As for now, though, I'm quite satisfied with a perfect prediction record for this season, and I hope the lessons learned this season can carry over into the next.
