The below table features renewal and cancelation predictions for scripted streaming originals with fates yet to be determined on Apple TV+, DailyWire+, Disney+, Freevee, Hulu, Max, MGM+, Paramount+, Peacock, Prime Video, Roku, and Tubi. We hope to add Netflix at a later date. Predictions are based off a model developed over the past year and a half. The primary factor is how easy it is to find the show on the streamer when browsing. For example, if a show appears prominently on a streamer’s home page five times, it’s often considered more likely to be renewed than one that you only find once or twice when you really go digging. Secondary factors include how long it’s been since the most recent season has been filmed, critical acclaim, and, when available, budget and viewership figures.
Underneath the prediction table, you will find prediction polls for every show in the table. Think of these almost as non-monetary betting markets. If you change your mind on a prediction for any reason, you will be allowed to return to this page and vote again. Also included are two additional polls related to Paramount+’s Halo being shopped for a potential third season, and Warner Bros Discovery’s trend of moving upcoming Max originals to HBO.
Bubble Shows
Sugar (Apple TV+)Premiering on April 5 and concluding on May 17, Sugar recently re-appeared on Apple’s Top 25 Originals chart due to an increase in exposure from a (minor) Emmy nomination. With Apple caring more about critically acclaimed programming than other streamers, could the nomination and subsequent boost in viewership be enough to secure a second season?
Renegade Nell (Disney+)
Renegade Nell’s first season aired in its entirety on March 29. On March 30, director Ben Taylor teased a potential second season was already being written. While Disney+ has not officially renewed the series for a second season, this can’t be taken as a bad sign. However, neither viewership nor current exposure are particularly high, making the show appear very much on the bubble.
Dr. Death (Peacock)
Dr. Death is arguably one of Peacock’s more recognizable titles — but it hasn’t been renewed in two years, well before the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes. It’s also incredibly rare for a Peacock series to go beyond its second season. Dr. Death is certainly a contender to be one of very few exceptions to the rule, but could also fall victim to the aftermath of the strikes.
The Spiderwick Chronicles (Roku)
The Spiderwick Chronicles was originally commissioned as a Disney+ original, filming an entire season before ultimately being scrapped. Roku would go on to pick up the already-filmed series, which became their most-viewed program ever. While Roku is certainly pleased with the first season’s performance, it’s unclear if they have the budget to film a second season themselves. This puts the show in danger of being one-and-done.
New Shows
Sunny (Apple TV+)
Apple TV+’s comedy Sunny premiered July 10 and, for a new series, is not receiving as much exposure on the app as one may think it would. For now, it’s ranked #4 on the Top 25 Originals chart, but that ranking can and likely will drop by the time Apple TV+ makes a decision on a second season. It will need to display longevity to earn a renewal prediction.
The Emperor of Ocean Park (MGM+)
Premiering on July 14, The Emperor of Ocean Park is receiving substantial exposure on the MGM+ app. If this sustains, there’s every reason to believe the series will be renewed. While it’s too soon to tell for sure, the early exposure is a positive sign.
Those About to Die (Peacock)
Those About to Die is one of Peacock’s most popular series at the moment, and is receiving ample exposure in the Peacock app. However, the first season is an adaptation of the 1974 book of the same name, and this wouldn’t be the first time a popular Peacock series concluded after just one season.
Currently Airing
Land of Women (Apple TV+)
Like Sunny, Land of Women’s Leans Cancel prediction is based off where this show will likely be on the Top 25 Originals chart in a few weeks, not where it is right now. With not a whole lot of exposure on the app for a show that’s currently airing, Land of Women could find itself with an uphill battle for its chances at a renewal. Plus, it’s covered the book the series is based on.
Ark: The Animated Series (Paramount+)
After being pushed back multiple times, Ark: The Animated Series had a surprise launch on Paramount+ in March. Six episodes dropped at once, with the rest of the season due to drop at a later date. Given the cancelation tear Paramount+ has been on, this show from an outside studio that they seemingly do not care about is unlikely to score a second season.
Mayor of Kingstown (Paramount+)
Mayor of Kingstown’s third season premiered on June 2, following a double-strike and a series accident for star Jeremy Renner. Mayor of Kingstown’s exposure on the Paramount+ app is surprisingly low for a given it’s a popular series currently airing new episodes. This leads one to believe a cancelation is not out of the realm of possibility on a streamer that couldn’t even find a way to renew Halo. However, Paramount+ seems to be more willing to work with Mayor of Kingstown’s co-creator Taylor Sheridan, who has several more seasons planned.
Other Polls
Halo Season 3
Paramount+ recently canceled Halo after two seasons. Halo was one of the streamer’s only original programs to make its way onto the Nielsen streaming charts, but came with a hefty price tag. The show is now being shopped to potential buyers for a third season pickup. Vote below on if you think Halo will be saved or if it’s done for good — and don’t forget, you can come back and vote again if you change your mind.
Max to HBO
Warner Bros Discovery has been shifting content previously announced to premiere as a Max original to HBO; most notably, The Penguin, Dune: Prophecy, and Harry Potter. This is part of an effort to bring the media conglomerate’s highest-priority upcoming titles to linear television. Predict below if Warner Bros Discovery will move any more upcoming series from Max to HBO by July 31.
Remaining Shows
Whether it be for weeks or months, several other shows are still awaiting word on their fates whose predictions are listed in the table. Vote below in any and all polls on if you think these shows will be renewed or canceled: