FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: The Grinder is Likely to be Cancelled

Welcome to Week Two of the FOX Renew/Cancel Watch!

FOX Scripted Average So Far: 1.80
FOX Scripted Average So Far Excluding Empire: 1.47
FOX Scripted Average This Week (From Last Wednesday To This Tuesday) Without Empire: 1.45

Key: Show (Average/Last Episode Aired)

Certain Renewal

  • Empire (6.1 / 5.5)
  • Family Guy (1.6 / 1.7)
  • The Simpsons (2.1 / 2.7) (Renewed)
  • Gotham (1.6 / 1.5)

Likely Renewal

  • Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.7 / 1.9)
  • The Last Man on Earth (1.4 / 1.5)
  • Grandfathered (1.3 / 1.1)

  • Bob's Burgers (1.2 / 1.2) (Renewed)
  • Bones (1.4 / 1.4)
  • Scream Queens (1.4 / 1.2)
  • Grandfathered (1.3 / 1.1)
Likely Cancellation

  • Rosewood (2.0 / 1.7)
  • The Grinder (1.3 / 1.0)
  • Sleepy Hollow (1.0 / 1.0)

Certain Cancellation

  • Minority Report (0.9 / 0.7)
In episode two, Rosewood dropped a whopping seven tenths which is almost a third of its audience. The numbers are still above renewal level, but I think it will continue to drop. I'll see next week whether to upgrade based on if Rosewood manages to stabilize somewhat. Its leadout Empire dropped a lot, so it could possibly be the lead out effect some believe have an influence on Rosewood. 

On Thursday, Bones premiered to a respectable 1.4, just two tenths below last year's premiere. This is a good result considering the other drops in the FOX schedule. I could see Bones get renewed for another season which will probably be its last. Bones has been a stable and consistent utility player for FOX over the years, and I'll see how Bones holds before moving its status. After Bones, Sleepy Hollow notched a very disappointing 1.0, a series low. This was down 50% from last year's premiere which was also disappointing. Even with the state of FOX, I doubt that they will renew a sub-1.0 show still two seasons away from syndication. It's crazy how two seasons ago this was FOX's breakout hit, and now it's struggling to hit a 1.0.

Bob's Burgers has been renewed for two more seasons, which was surprising news to me because it came out of nowhere. Nonetheless, Bob's Burgers has always been a reliable performer for FOX, and as a fan, this is great news. Shows that have renewal or cancellation news will be frozen in the prediction they were placed under prior to the announcement.

On Tuesday, the comedies had ugly drops from already modest premieres. Grandfathered dropped four three tenths, and The Grinder dropped five tenths, retaining just 66% of the premiere. These comedies may not be as disastrous as Mulaney from last year, but FOX should expect more. Grandfathered may have a chance, but only if it manages to be extremely stable. Also, I placed it on the bubble because I will be only moving predictions of shows one "level" per week. Along with the comedies, Scream Queens dropped again. Like I said last week, FOX could renew Scream Queens at this level because of its high W18-34 ratings. This Tuesday, it was the number one scripted show in that demo. But, like its A18-49 ratings, they have been consistently dropping each week, and if they continue dropping, it will not be enough to secure a renewal.

What are your predictions? Leave them in the comments below.

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