Ad Rates--Which Veteran Shows Are In Trouble?

The Ratings Junkie

FOX

Hey everyone, here's another article pertaining to ad rates! If you don't care about the process but want to see the answer to the headline, scrolling to the bottom will do. But I think they are fascinating and since they are central to TV ratings, I wanted to cover them a little more. You can find a list of all the ad rates, their previous ad rates, and percent change on AdAge (click here). And the percent change is exactly what I'm going to examine right now.

First, let's start off with a basic list of which returning shows have a smaller ad rate than they do this season, and the percent loss, broken down by each network:

ABC
-Dancing with the Stars (-2%)
-Castle (-20%)
-Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D (-14%)
-Nashville (-2%)
-Last Man Standing (-3%)
-Shark Tank (-9%)

CBS
-Scorpion (-4%)
-NCIS: LA (-14%)
-NCIS (-11%)
-Survivor (-7%)
-Criminal Minds (-2%)
-Elementary (-15%)
-The Amazing Race (-14%)
-Blue Bloods (-4%)
-CSI: Cyber (-16%)

CW
-Supernatural (-12%)
-The Vampire Diaries (-25%)
-Reign (-16%)
-America's Next Top Model (-29%)

FOX
-Gotham (-17%)
-American Idol--Wednesday (-39%)
-Bones (-24%)
-Sleepy Hollow (-51%)
-MasterChef Junior (-7%)
-The Simpsons (-2%)
-Brooklyn 9-9 (-14%)

NBC
-The Voice--Monday (-12%)
-The Voice--Tuesday (-8%)
-Law & Order: SVU (-5%)
-The Blacklist (-32%)
-Grimm (-30%)

Obviously networks can't (and won't) cancel anything, so let's start by eliminating shows that will get a fourth season for syndication purposes, AND shows that have already been announced will not return, AND shows that we just know will return (The Voice and The Simpsons may be down, but they are far from leaving the air). We are still left with a ton of shows:

ABC
-Castle (-20%)
-Nashville (-2%)
-Last Man Standing (-3%)

CBS
-Scorpion (-4%)
-NCIS: LA (-14%)
-NCIS (-11%)
-Criminal Minds (-2%)
-Elementary (-15%)
-The Amazing Race (-14%)
-Blue Bloods (-4%)
-CSI: Cyber (-16%)

CW
-Supernatural (-12%)
-The Vampire Diaries (-25%)
-Reign (-16%)

FOX
-Gotham (-17%)
-Bones (-24%)
-Sleepy Hollow (-51%)

NBC
-Law & Order: SVU (-5%)
-Grimm (-30%)

A case may also be made for eliminating Reign from that list, but with those 0.2s I'm not so sure the syndication gods will want it.

Next, let's eliminate all the shows that are at 5% of below for decreases. Assuming those shows live remotely up to their ad rates, then extraneous factors such as contracts and outside expenses may be a reason for their cancellations. And for the sake of this post, we are only looking into what the ad rates may determine for the networks' plans for the shows coming into the season. Now, we are left with:

ABC
-Castle (-20%)

CBS
-NCIS: LA (-14%)
-Elementary (-15%)
-The Amazing Race (-14%)
-CSI: Cyber (-16%)

CW
-Supernatural (-12%)
-The Vampire Diaries (-25%)
-Reign (-16%)

FOX
-Gotham (-17%)
-Bones (-24%)
-Sleepy Hollow (-51%)

NBC
-Grimm (-30%)

So there it is: your list. Obviously extraneous factors may spare some of these shows and others may be brought in (The Good Wife, anyone?), but based on the ad rates these are the ones to watch. And even then, I don't see a world in which CBS, The CW, and FOX cancel so many shows. Of the above shows:

-Gotham and Supernatural are probably the safest
-I would start to fear if you're a fan of Castle, Grimm, or Sleepy Hollow; also very possible for The Vampire Diaries and Bones

Thanks for reading, hope you found this fascinating!