Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
Betrayal: Secrets & Lies (Fate TBD)
The Golden Bachelor (Fate TBD)
Leans Cancellation:
RJ Decker (Renewed 5/8)
Leans Renewal:
The Greatest Average American (Fate TBD)
High Potential was the only show that I had as a lock from the very first edition, and never wavered on. Even though this season wasn't as strong in the ratings as last year, it was obviously in no danger, nor will it be in danger in the near future.
Abbott Elementary was upgraded to "certain" status by the close of 2025. I never felt it was in much of any danger, but it is in its fifth season and has fewer viewers than most other ABC shows, though it makes up for that by skewing younger and overperforming in the demo. I'm not sure how long Abbott Elementary has left, and I do know there were some talks about the show's cast wanting to move on eventually rather than keeping the show going for too long, but I expect it to still be well-positioned for another season after this, and its renewal this season was certainly no surprise.
The Scrubs revival was also pegged as a certain renewal, and not just because it would be genuinely embarrassing for ABC to bring back such a known IP and then cancel it after only nine episodes. It genuinely performed very well, and with 8.7 million viewers in MP+7 data, it was one of the most-watched comedies of the season. It was an obvious pickup - and I'm surprised they didn't order more than just the ten episodes that they ordered for season two.
Grey's Anatomy spent most of the season as a "likely" renewal prediction. Ratings aren't all that strong anymore, but streaming deals and international sales keep it lucrative enough to be safe. Once shows began wrapping production for the season, and March arrived, it was pretty clear that Grey's Anatomy was not getting a "final season" announcement, and it sure wasn't about to be unceremoniously canceled. In fact, it was so far away from an unceremonious cancellation that it's getting a new spinoff next season, though that'll be at the expense of its own episode order.
Every other renewed scripted show was seen as being at least slightly at risk.
I had 9-1-1 in the basically same boat as Grey's Anatomy. Ratings have cooled off, and while it's not as lucrative as Grey's, it was highly doubtful that it was going to be axed. I was planning to upgrade it eventually (roughly the same time I upgraded Grey's), but ABC got around to renewing it first. It's clearly cooled off from its heyday, but it's still doing well enough to easily justify its continued renewals. It won't have the longevity of Grey's Anatomy, but it's still clearly an important property for ABC.
The 9-1-1 more at risk this season, and far more at risk next season, is new show 9-1-1: Nashville. It had some awful data points this season that nearly prompted a downgrade, but I really doubted ABC would cancel a new Ryan Murphy show two seasons in a row - let alone a direct spinoff of 9-1-1. Its multiplatform data confirmed that its weak linear retention of 9-1-1 was indicative of overall issues, and among ABC dramas, it ranked ahead of only Grey's Anatomy in the recently-released MP+7 ratings. This experiment was not successful, but it wasn't enough of a failure for NBC to give up on it so soon. Next year will be the real test.
Kicking off Tuesday nights for the also few years has been Will Trent. It's done solidly in that slot, but never outstanding, save for a few select data points. It's the perfect utility player, a show ABC can rely on consistently, but not a show that'll run forever and spawn a franchise, like 9-1-1 or Grey's Anatomy. It definitely benefits from the local lead-in, and I am curious how well it would hold up in a later hour, but it's not enough of a "time slot hit" that I ever thought it was in much danger this year. With 10.4 million viewers, it's a top ten show in total viewers in MP+7, and that's surely good enough to keep going, even if its multiplatform demo rating is likely on the lower end, as it consistently has been.
The Rookie is one I've been iffy on for a few years now, just due to how long it's been on the air, and because ABC doesn't fully own it. I started it out as a cancellation prediction last season, but it was always on the right side of the bubble this year. It began as a leans renewal prediction, but it continued to impress on streaming, and remained fairly steady in linear ratings, so it was upgraded. The hardest thing in predicting renewals is figuring out when a long-running show is on its way out, because the reason for their ending is often due to reasons outside of its performance. It's a struggle I've had with The Rookie in the past, but as of late, I've just felt there's more life in it. In the end, I was able to confidently predict a renewal, even if I did have doubts earlier in the season about whether The Rookie: North was planned as a replacement for it.
Shifting Gears has been somewhat tough to predict, just because its strong linear ratings don't really carry over into delayed ratings. It's one of ABC's worst performers in the demo in MP+7, despite being their #2 show in L+SD ratings. It also did not get a full-season order, which now seems to be the plan moving forward, with it sharing a slot with Scrubs. But at the beginning of the season, I was quite perplexed as to whether the short order was related to cast demands, a necessity due to the Scrubs order, or if ABC just lacked confidence in it. Its streaming performance has been outright bad, and there were warning signs about how it was doing on streaming last season, so it felt logical to start the show on the bubble. As the season went on, and it held up so well in linear ratings (down just 7% y2y, and never rating below season one's low), I got more confident about it. I got worried again when it took several months after the finale for ABC to renew it, but the renewal did eventually come. It's clear at this point that Shifting Gears will not be another Last Man Standing or Home Improvement for Tim Allen and ABC. With short seasons each year, it's not going to surpass 100 episodes. However, it is going to surpass 23 episodes, so my likely renewal prediction was correct.
In the end, my scripted record was 9-1. 90% isn't a bad record, but I'm not satisfied with it, as I missed the only show that truly felt like it could go either way. The other nine, for one reason or another, all felt like they would be pretty easily renewed, so it's a hollow victory. I'm certainly hoping for a better season next year, and with several of this year's shows looking to be in at least some degree of danger heading into next season, I'll hopefully have more than one bubble show to discuss, too.
As is standard for reality shows, which aren't typically renewed or canceled on the same timeframe as scripted shows, we still have some shows left up in the air, despite this being the annual "wrap-up" post.
American Idol was never in contention for a fall slot, so it not being officially renewed yet isn't a surprise. It will surely be back for its milestone 25th season, which will likely be confirmed soon, when auditions officially begin.
The Greatest Average American is probably the biggest head-scratcher left. With its middling first-run ratings, it could easily be one-and-done, but ABC's been airing repeats of the show - and they've done pretty well. With Celebrity Jeopardy assuming the Wednesday at 9 hour in the fall, there will clearly be an open slot - likely for reality - midseason. The Greatest Average American can easily assume that spot, so expect news on this show closer to when ABC is announcing their midseason plans.
I'd operated under the assumption that The Great Christmas Light Fight would return, as it consistently has for more than a decade, but I wasn't certain. ABC didn't renew it early, like they always do, which was a red flag I maybe should've paid more attention to. It didn't film last year, despite the show starting the casting process, and it's very unlikely it'll be returning this year, as a result. It's not officially canceled yet, but this does seem like a missed prediction.
The Golden Bachelor: Ratings were dreadful for this Bachelor spinoff, but at the end of the day, it is a Bachelor series. You can't ever write them off completely, as the franchise seems to survive anything thrown its way. However, I bet on cancellation for The Golden Bachelor, and there haven't been signs yet that it'll be returning. There's no "Golden" show on the schedule this fall for the first time since 2022. With the first season of Golden Bachelorette and the second season of Golden Bachelor both struggling, they may have already decided to quietly move on from this iteration of the franchise. With time, we'll likely get an (potentially unofficial) confirmation one way or the other.
Betrayal: Secrets & Lies: It was never likely that we'd get a decision on Betrayal: Secrets & Lies in May. This show will either disappear or randomly show up on the schedule a few weeks before it's set to return. My feeling all along is that it hasn't done well enough for them to bother bringing it back, and I still feel that way. We probably won't get closure here for a while, but if it doesn't air sometime next season, we can probably consider this one a lost cause.
