CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: '2 Broke Girls' is Certain to be Renewed

Entertainment Weekly

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch of the fall season! All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes follows. My current predictions are as of November 14, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Show Title
    Season Low High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
The Big Bang Theory
1.7 / 3.1 / 2.30
2.1 / 2.5 / 2.24
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.00
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.84
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 1.9 / 1.68
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.67
2 Broke Girls
- / 1.6 / 1.60
1.4 / 1.9 / 1.59
- / 1.5 / 1.50
Madam Secretary
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.30
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.23
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.21
1.1 / 1.2 / 1.20
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.2 / 1.10
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.1 / 1.08
0.8 / 1.1 / 0.95
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.0 / 0.80

2 BROKE GIRLS: The show premiered its fifth season to a 1.6 rating at 9:30 on Thursday, which is down 33 percent from its season four opener last year. However, it positively grew from its Mom lead-in by about 7 percent. CBS relies on 2 Broke Girls as one of its top comedy performers, and the show just entered syndication on TBS this fall. Kat Dennings and Beth Behrs shouldn't have a problem securing at least a sixth season as CBS continues to struggle at attempting to develop new comedy hits. Given that The Odd Couple and Mike & Molly have only 13-episode orders for midseason, as well as Life in Pieces only posting slightly better ratings at 8:30 despite having The Big Bang Theory as a lead-in, 2 Broke Girls has extremely comfortable chances at securing a spot on the 2016-2017 schedule. I currently predict 2 Broke Girls as "Certain to be Renewed."

ELEMENTARY: I highly defended Elementary last week in spite of its lowly 1.1 season premiere rating. It has an incredible $3M/episode syndication package, CBS has been content with its low-rated performance over the years, etc. This lucrative syndication package is basically the only shred of dignity the show has that could keep it alive. Its 27 percent drop to a 0.8 rating this week is terrible, as it was down around 33 percent from the same episode last year (1.2) which followed The McCarthys (1.5). The retention is much worse now, as Elementary only retained 50% of its 2 Broke Girls lead-in audience compared to its solid 80% retention last year. Unfortunately, as much as you'd like to think it isn't a realistic possibility, a 0.8-0.9 average could very well get Elementary renewed for a fifth season. As I see it, in the event the show is renewed, Sundays at 10 would be the place to give it another potential 13 or 22-episode season to pack on some extra revenue. However, there is a long way to go before spring, with continued ratings woes guaranteed to come for most of network television. It's hard to imagine this 0.8 is the lowest the show will go. Elementary has been demoted from "Likely to be Renewed" to "On the Bubble."

HAWAII FIVE-0: Given its very consistent performance so far this season and relatively light 10% y2y drop, in addition to the poor performance of freshman Code Black and the sizable y2y drops for CSI: Cyber and Elementary, the show is becoming an increasingly better option for CBS to consider renewing. It's going to depend on how CBS's freshman dramas continue to do, as well as its other aging veterans. I won't be so quick to predict a likely renewal for this drama, as I think it's still very much on the low end of the totem pole, but placing it "On the Bubble" should be generous enough for the time being as everything around it tries to settle, or perhaps crashes down in flames (namely, Supergirl).

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