FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Rosewood Certain to be Renewed + Tuesday Update

The Ratings Junkie

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Certatin to be Cancelled	Likely to be Cancelled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
The Grinder	The Last Man On Earth	Scream Queens	Bones	Empire	The Simpsons
Minority Report	Grandfathered			Family Guy	Bob’s Burgers
Sleepy Hollow				Gotham
				Brooklyn 9-9
				Rosewood

Changes from Last Time

-Rosewood upgraded from "Watching" to "Certain to be Renewed"
-Brooklyn 9-9 upgraded from "Likely to be Renewed" to "Certain to be Renewed"
-Scream Queens downgraded from "Likely to be Renewed" to "Watching"
-Grandfathered downgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Cancelled"
-The Last Man On Earth downgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Cancelled"
-The Grinder downgraded from "Likely to be Cancelled" to "Certain to be Cancelled"

Why is Rosewood "Certain to be Renewed"?

TV Media Insights

Even though Rosewood's numbers can be a bit deceiving because of the Empire pre-tune in the final half-hour, FOX is not really in a position to call it quits on a show that regardless delivers some of
their best ratings. I think this show next season will either be paired with or take over for Bones.

Why is Brooklyn 9-9 "Certain to be Renewed"?

Brooklyn 9-9 is in its third season, and just one away from syndication. Even though it's not an in-house production, the ratings are good enough for FOX to keep it around and try to revive the Tuesday comedy block around it.

Why is The Last Man On Earth "Likely to be Cancelled"?

Jason Sudeikis will voice an animated character on Son of Zorn

Even though its ratings aren't terrible, per say, I do think that The Last Man On Earth will be cancelled. One reason is that ratings aren't necessarily good, either, and is far away from syndication (four seasons won't get it there either considering they do shorter seasons). But the main reason is that executive producers Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (I can't help but think that Will Forte's
character Phil Miller came from their names) have a new show, Son of Zorn, with a series commitment on FOX. The party live-action, partly animated show seems fit for Sundays, and stars Forte's fellow SNL alum, Jason Sudeikis, who coincidentally or not currently plays a recurring role on Last Man. I can't see Lord and Miller doing double-duty, and this feels like a new high-concept FOX project where they are starting over with a different SNL alum.

Tuesday Update: How are the New Shows Doing?

Scream Queens is performing a full four tenths below its estimated number needed to satisfy the ad rate. The Grinder is doing three tenths less, and Grandfathered two tenths less. I can't say those are particularly pleasing numbers--nor is the fact that all three have gone fractional on one or more occasions. The Grinder, no matter how you look at it, is Certain to be Cancelled in my book. FOX simply doesn't need to renew a show that is already posting 0.7s, its lowest-rated comedy, and won't get much better unless it surges behind Brooklyn 9-9 in the spring. The same can mostly be said about Grandfathered--unless it surges behind New Girl, it will probably be cancelled. But then again, will FOX want to renew more than just one of their Tuesday comedies? They could renew New Girl, but it smells like a final season to me. It may depend on their pilots, but I just don't think Grandfathered's ratings are cutting it right now and advertisers will want to buy spots on a show that is guaranteed fractional. But at least it's doing better than The Grinder.

Finally, on Scream Queens, the only reason why it is place in the Watch column right now is because it performs relatively well in W18-34. FOX was probably hoping to find a show that appealed to the New Girl/Mindy Project W18-34 audience in the Tuesday at 9 spot, and Scream Queens just hasn't
done enough of it. Then again, it's one of the only shows on broadcast television that can say it has the ability to rate higher amongst W18-34 than A18-49, and that's a hard demographic to reach.

What do you think of my analysis? What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments below!