Are Ad Rates Directly Correlated to Ratings?--CW Edition

The Ratings Junkie Thursday, November 05, 2015
Recently the ad rates this series were released (click here). Let's look at The CW now, and see how far off or close some shows' ratings may be from their relative standing in ad prices. For new shows, this is largely due to an over/under estimation of its ratings--for veteran shows, it may depend on expected trends, the demographics it hits, etc.

In the 2014-2015 TV season, The CW's scripted show average for fall series was a 0.7425. This year's average ad rate for a fall CW show was $37,125, rounded to the nearest dollar.

Since the rates aren't that different this season from last season, let's say The CW is expecting another 0.7425 average. Let's see what the predicted ratings for the shows would be if the ratings and ad rates were directly correlated:

-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend: 0.46
-Jane the Virgin: .50
-The Flash: 1.41
-iZombie: 0.69
-Arrow: 0.96
-Supernatural: 0.71
-The Vampire Diaries: 0.90
-The Originals: 0.65
-Reign: 0.39

Some of these numbers (Arrow, Supernatural, Jane the Virgin) look plausible, while others (Reign, The Vampire Diaries) simply do not. What are your thoughts? Leave them in the comments below!

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