CW Renew/Cancel Watch: 'The Vampire Diaries' is Likely to be Renewed

Final Season
Certain to be Canceled
Likely to be Canceled
Toss Up
Likely to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed
Beauty and the Beast

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Jane the Virgin

Reign (F)
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow

The 100

The Vampire Diaries (F)
The Flash

The Originals (F)

Prediction Changes from Last Time:
The Vampire Diaries is upgraded to likely renewal.
Jane the Virgin is downgraded to likely renewal.
I've added the (F) designation to indicate a Friday show. Typically, shows airing on Fridays will be renewed with 20-30% lower ratings. Expectations are not as high on Fridays as it is for the other shows.

Why is The Vampire Diaries now Likely to be Renewed?
For the past few weeks, I've had The Vampire Diaries as a toss-up. With recent Friday ratings of The Vampire Diaries and The Originals now outrating the entire CW Monday lineup, and that The Vampire Diaries for the past two airings is on par with its fall average, I have upgraded the show to a likely renewal.

Jane the Virgin is a Sinking Ship in the Ratings. How Could it Not Get Canceled?
Hence, I have downgraded the show to a likely renewal. It's a show co-produced by CBS and Warner Bros., and CBS gets distribution rights. Hence, CBS affirmative action will likely get it a third season, despite getting a 0.3 in the all important A18-49 demographic.

(F): Shows on Fridays can survive at lower ratings levels, since expectations are not as high as shows that air Monday through Thursday.
Yet to Premiere: Containment 

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