FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Lucifer Looking to Defy History

What's New?

-The X Files premieres as a likely renewal
-Lucifer premieres as a likely renewal

Wait...I Thought FOX Hasn't Renewed More Than 4 Dramas in Recent History?

They haven't. However, American Idol won't be returning next season, freeing up three hours in January and February, and two hours from February through the end of the season. Lucifer was sampled well, premiering at a 2.4 A18-49 demo rating out of The X-Files' 3.2. Time will tell if it will hold up, but I visualize that even if it drops by a full ratings point, as long as it keeps 60-70% retention or so from whatever The X-Files is getting, it should be good. I don't like to be too conservative with my predictions by starting everything off on the bubble, so I started it as a likely renewal. Given that American Idol is off the schedule next season and FOX didn't get any part of the Thursday Night Football package, I don't see a reason why they can't renew more than 4 dramas. This means that a potential Lucifer renewal won't be bad news for Gotham or Rosewood, which are still certain renewals.

Could Brooklyn 9-9 Be This Season's Mindy Project?

On Tuesday, January 26, Brooklyn 9-9 fell to a season low of a 1.0 A18-49 demo rating. This is just one tenth above lead-in Grandfathered, and it's become very clear that the show isn't really that strong at all and is incapable of anchoring a two-hour Tuesday block. It, along with The Grinder, is already relatively weak in its 18-34:18-49 ratio. While I'm keeping it as a certain renewal for now, I'm still watching its ratings very closely. If it wasn't in its third season, Brooklyn 9-9 could be one, two, even three categories below where it is right now.

What's Next?

I'm patiently waiting for more numbers on Cooper Barrett and Bordertown, but I'll have to wait for those considering neither show is scheduled on Sunday. I'm "Watching" both of them, even though I think I have down the 6 comedies that will be renewed, because a 7th could definitely happen to fill scheduling time. Remember that Bordertown won't be ready until the spring, which could warrant a Last Man On Earth/Bordertown scheduling situation next season. There's also Botcop to look out for though, which is a new FOX animation that they have in development.

Question of the Week

Will Lucifer be renewed or cancelled?

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