Certain Cancellation:
Grosse Pointe Garden Society (0.12, 0.09-0.17)
The Irrational (0.17, 0.10-0.31)
Leans Cancellation:
Found (0.21, 0.16-0.29)
Leans Renewal:
Suits LA (0.17, 0.10-0.24)
Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.30, 0.25-0.36)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.39, 0.31-0.48)
Chicago Med (0.40, 0.33-0.48)
Chicago PD (0.35, 0.27-0.48)
Law & Order: SVU (0.35, 0.27-0.49)
Saturday Night Live (0.80, 0.52-2.17)
Renewed:
Happy's Place
St. Denis Medical
Brilliant Minds: NBC's lone new fall drama was a clear flop when it debuted: just a 0.29 behind a 0.48 from The Voice, and for the most part, it was just downhill from there. For most of its run, Brilliant Minds was a consistent 0.2 player, never going below that mark (which shouldn't be considered a feat) and never going above that mark after its fifth episode. It looked like a clear cancelation by the time NBC double-pumped its final two episodes on the first Monday of 2025, and it was essentially forgotten about, thanks to a slew of new dramas premiering soon after that. I marked it as a certain cancellation - the show had all the hallmarks of a one-and-done fall drama that didn't get any sort of backorder and would be a total afterthought by May. I still very much expect it to be canceled. However, the months after Brilliant Minds left the airwaves were some of the most dismal months NBC's ever seen - Grosse Pointe Garden Society, The Hunting Party and Suits LA all bombed massively, The Irrational hit lows never before seen (but soon after replicated!) on broadcast TV, and Found remained on incredibly shaky ground. And suddenly, Brilliant Minds looks a bit better. Of the dramas on the "bubble," it has the highest average, at just 0.23. That's two hundredths above the next-highest, Found and The Hunting Party - not exactly an inspiring victory margin, but notable nonetheless. That's just enough for me to say it's not entirely dead, but it was still a drag on their schedule when it did air, and it does feel forgotten by this point. If NBC intended to renew it, I don't think it would've taken four months after its finale to do it. Chance of renewal: 15%
Chicago Fire, Chicago Med, and Chicago PD: One of the biggest shocks of the season is that it's now May, and these shows haven't been renewed yet. Since the formation of the Wednesday night "One Chicago" block in 2018, this trio of shows have felt like a cohesive unit. It's practically impossible to discuss any one of these series without mentioning the others, and it's equally impossible to imagine them not airing together at this point, even though Chicago Fire aired six seasons on its own before the formation of this block. It's a lineup that has been incredibly strong for NBC, and at this stage in its run, it's the only night that fully works for NBC. Even the other night featuring Dick Wolf shows is bogged down by a low-rated 10 PM entry, now that Organized Crime's been shifted to Peacock, and both Law & Order and OC were far weaker than Med and PD in the 8 and 10 PM hours even when Law & Order did have its own night. No one can argue with the ratings strength of the Chicago series - they're three of only four NBC primetime scripted series holding above the league average this season - though the lineup does make scheduling a bit harder for NBC, with very few slots ever opening up for new shows. This trio is a lock to return, and is probably going to, once again, be the only lineup that works for NBC in its entirety. How much longer these shows will last is another question, but NBC likely has several more years with this lineup, especially with how poorly all of NBC's newest shows have performed in recent seasons. Chance of renewal: 100%
Found: Anyone that has read this column this season knows how much of a struggle this show has been to predict. It's switched back and forth between cancellation and renewal all season, and last week, I settled on a final prediction for it: cancellation. Nothing has changed since then. This is a show that could go either way and it wouldn't shock me much. It has more episodes than any other bubble show, which may incentivize Warner Bros. to push for a renewal, but it still only has 35 episodes at the end of the day. It would need another three seasons at least to get to that magical syndication number, and syndication in general has become less and less of a priority. NBC partially owns the show, so they do have a stake in then show as well, but they fully own a few of the other scripted flops. In the end, though, Found is not doing profoundly better than some of these other shows, and it's one show that they can definitely say flopped with a strong, compatible drama lead-in. I think every other drama on the lineup would flop just as much as Found, if not worse, but they already know without a shadow of a doubt that Found isn't working behind SVU. I don't expect NBC to renew the show just to fill the slot, because they could always plug some slots with unscripted shows, keep two hours of comedy, or air international co-productions (which Fox has already done with Murder in a Small Town). I really struggle to see NBC giving a "pity renewal" to multiple series that are badly underperforming, and Found already got a second chance after a season of OK but unexceptional ratings in season one. I expect a second chance to be given to one of their new dramas, though all of those have also performed badly enough to be canceled. Thanks to a decent streaming performance on Peacock, this show does have a bit more potential than most of the network's other non-Wolf dramas this season, all of which have performed so badly this season in linear ratings. It's still in contention for a renewal, based mostly on the weakness of its competition, but I don't think it's earned one. I am ever so slightly betting against a renewal here. Chance of renewal: 49%
Grosse Pointe Garden Society: NBC's newest drama was wilted from the very beginning, with the weakest premiere rating of any show on the network this season, at just 0.17. And that was the highlight of its run! Since that debut, the show has been firmly in 0.1 territory, hitting a 0.09 against the Oscars and inching towards that in recent weeks, with a 0.10 for its most recent airing. Weeks into its run, the show was yanked from Sundays and shifted to Fridays at 8, a move that hasn't really helped or hurt the show. Despite a local lead-in, which typically boosts an 8 PM show, it's rated practically the same as it did on Sunday nights. It's likely that with Suits LA dropping on Sundays, Grosse Pointe would've gone down with it, possibly hitting new series lows the last few weeks. So the move to Friday did save it from experiencing that. However, it hasn't meaningfully made the show any stronger, and it still has the lowest average of any NBC show. With every non-Dick Wolf drama a bomb of epic proportions, the ratings of all of them aren't that different, but Grosse Pointe stands out, rating a full half-tenth behind the next-weakest show and more than a full tenth behind the "strongest" non-Wolf drama. There has been discussion of NBCUniversal being interested in continuing the show on Peacock, and while I don't expect that to happen, it's enough for me to not be 100% certain it's dead. However, NBC renewing this low-rated soap would be one of the most shocking TV developments in recent years. Chance of renewal: 5%
The Hunting Party: One of five flop dramas on NBC with practically-interchangeable ratings, The Hunting Party has a higher chance at returning than its ratings warrant. Ending its run with a string of 0.1s, this show should be an easy cancellation decision for NBC. However, Suits LA and The Irrational have gone even lower, and Found and Brilliant Minds have both dropped nearly as low. The Hunting Party has one thing going for it that several of these shows do not: it's fully produced by NBC. With most of these shows, we don't have any ratings data for them beyond their linear ratings (which are all awful). The same is the case for The Hunting Party, which made a minimal impact on Peacock, charting in their top 10 a few days over its ten-episode run, but never with any consistency. Linear ratings are very low, and this show absolutely flatlined with even the slightest hint of time slot competition, so I see little reason for NBC to consider renewing it, but if they are so desperate to fill a slot on their schedule, there aren't many good options, and they do at least own this one. It's a long-shot, but it's not completely dead. Chance of renewal: 30%
The Irrational: Season one of this procedural drama was not a terribly strong season. It averaged 0.26 in the key 18-49 demo, and was in the bottom half of NBC's scripted pack that season, rating the same as the canceled Magnum PI and just a hundredth ahead of canceled shows Extended Family and Quantum Leap. However, as one of the few new shows on NBC that season thanks to the strike, it was granted an early renewal. It went as low as 0.19 in season one, but showed a bit of promise at the start of its season season, with a near-series-high 0.31 premiere. It's been downhill from there. It was down to 0.26 in the demo the next week, then tied its series low the week after that. By January, it hit an embarrassing low of 0.10, at the time the lowest rating for any live-action scripted show on the big four. It didn't go any lower from there, but it continued to rate in the strong 0.1 to weak 0.2 range the rest of the season, ending its season with a 0.17 average. This is a show that barely earned a renewal last time and completely bombed this season. It had a second chance and it blew it. The night it airs on, Tuesday, will no longer have original programming next season, and I don't think a third season of The Irrational is worth giving a big promo campaign to in order to make viewers aware of a time slot move. I believe this is the most likely cancellation on all of NBC, which is really saying something. It has practically nothing going for it. Chance of renewal: 1%
Law & Order: The weakest of Dick Wolf's five NBC shows, Law & Order has had a pretty weak spring, with weak 0.3s the past few months, aside from its SVU crossover episode. However, that's still far ahead of every other drama on NBC not from Dick Wolf, so it looks a bit better in comparison. It's most likely going to be the first Wolf show to leave the air, given its relative weakness on both linear and streaming compared to the Chicagos and SVU, but NBC is not currently in the position to cancel it. They have many bigger fish to fry, and this show is a reliable enough performer that a cancellation would be a mistake at this point in time. It's practically a lock to return, as it's a valuable asset for NBC at this point in time. Chance of renewal: 90%
Law & Order: SVU: A streaming powerhouse and the only scripted show on NBC other than the Chicagos to be an above-average performer this season, SVU is in no danger this time around. With 26 seasons and counting, and continued strong ratings, this show has more than earned the right to a pre-announced final season. Two of the show's most important figures, Dick Wolf and star Mariska Hargitay, have given no sign of wanting to end the show in the near future, and it's a huge money-maker for NBC, even if it is likely quite expensive to produce. Much like the Chicagos, it's surprising that it hasn't been renewed yet, but that renewal will come soon. Chance of renewal: 100%
Lopez vs Lopez: The lowest-rated renewal on NBC last season, Lopez vs Lopez faces long odds in gaining another renewal. The series moved back to Fridays for its third season, as a companion to fellow multi-cam Happy's Place. Ratings were mediocre, and retention was similarly "meh." It wasn't a total ratings disaster, especially considering the low expectations, but it wasn't enough for NBC to extend its run. While three additional scripts were ordered, those orders did not result in an episode extension, while Happy's Place got five more episodes ordered for tis first season. NBC replaced Lopez vs Lopez with repeats for the last five weeks of Happy's Place's run, and those repeats didn't perform much differently than Lopez. This show has surprised me before by getting renewed when NBC seemed to be done with it, but replacing it on the schedule with repeats seems like a pretty damning indicator that it will not be back. It is produced at a lower cost than just about anything else on NBC's lineup, which is one factor it has going for it, but I think this show's luck has simply run out. Chance of renewal: 25%
Night Court: The other veteran multi-cam on NBC's lineup, Night Court is downgraded this week, back to LIKELY CANCELLATION status. The show has had a tumultuous run, with ratings ranging from heavily-rounded 0.2s to solid 0.3s. On two occasions this season, it's gone from a 0.15/0.16 to a 0.24 in the course of just one week. It's hard to know what its true audience is when it fluctuates so much, even with St. Denis Medical being fairly stable, but it's not a terribly strong show regardless. NBC doesn't fully own it, it's a Warner Bros. co-production. Warner TV chair Channing Dungey was recently interviewed by Deadline about some of their shows, and during a question about their shows at NBC, Dungey mentioned her hopes for renewals for Found and Brilliant Minds, but had nothing to say about Night Court. That isn't necessarily indicative of anything, but being the only show snubbed by its production company's TV chair is probably not the most positive sign, especially when Brilliant Minds has been off the air for months and has always been a renewal long-shot. That's not the only reason I'm predicting cancelation - I've thought this would be the end of Night Court for some time. NBC just doesn't really have room for Night Court, with two comedies already renewed and several others in development, and Night Court is a complete non-factor on streaming and quite mediocre in L+7 ratings. NBC just doesn't need this show, and with it being given a time slot downgrade this season, there are signs it's on the way out. Chance of renewal: 35%
Saturday Night Live: There's not much to really say about this iconic sketch comedy show. It's NBC's highest-rated show despite only airing in primetime on the west coast, and it's an integral part of American pop culture. Creator Lorne Michaels is an incredibly powerful and influential figure at NBC, and SNL won't be ended anytime soon if he has anything to say about it (which he certainly does). This show's renewal is a foregone conclusion. Chance of renewal: 100%
Suits LA: No show has given me more of a headache to predict this season than Suits LA. Just after I upped to a renewal prediction, the wheels have completely come off. A pathetic 0.14 on Easter now looks good in comparison to its rating the week later, with an utterly abysmal 0.10 for its first episode without an original episode of The Americas leading into it. I feared that it would drop with a weakened repeat lead-in, but this is... something else. Its ratings have never really factored into my renewal prediction, since it's always been a flop, but NBC is really going to need to work overtime to ignore ratings this historically awful. There's nothing to suggest that Suits LA has any potential to ever work for NBC, but I am still leaning ever-so-slightly towards a renewal. NBC can give it one last chance by moving it to a weeknight and hoping (in vain) that that will help boost its ratings. It's the only bubble drama that hasn't gotten the chance to air behind either The Voice or SVU this season (aside from Grosse Pointe), and NBC may be hoping that it can grow an audience over the summer. They did air repeats of the show on Thursday a few weeks ago, possibly an early preview of their scheduling plans for it. Also possibly a good sign for the show's renewal is NBC developing an offshoot of a different USA Network series, a reboot/revival of Royal Pains, further indication that some of these long-ended USA shows are still seen as valuable properties for NBCUniversal. Suits LA has not performed at a level that deserves renewal, and ratings in recent weeks should be pointing towards an easy cancellation. However, I believe the Suits brand will be enough to give it one more chance, though I expect it to remain a ratings disaster in a prospective season two. A cancellation would not be much of a shock, and it and Found are easily interchangeable on the schedule, as I expect only one drama to be returned, with those two being the most likely. It's a true tossup as to which is given another season, but I suspect the newer Suits LA has the slight edge. We'll see how NBC decides in the very near future. Chance of renewal: 51%
Interactive Schedule:
The TV Ratings Guide
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
Mon
The Voice
The Hunting Party
Tues
St. Denis Medical
Night Court
Deal or No Deal Island
The Irrational
Wed
Chicago Med
Chicago Fire
Chicago PD
Thurs
Law & Order
Law & Order: SVU
Found
Fri
Grosse Pointe Garden Society
Dateline NBC
Sun
The Americas
Suits LA
Dateline NBC
