In week four of the new season, ABC debuted its new two-hour Tuesday comedy block. The first predictions for those four shows follow.
Certain to be Canceled
Conviction (0.9, 0.8-0.9)
Notorious (1.0, 0.8-1.1)
Likely to be Canceled
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-0.9)
Secrets & Lies (1.0, 0.9-1.0)
Toss-Up
Agents of SHIELD (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
Once Upon a Time (1.2, 1.1-1.2)
Quantico (1.0, 1.0-1.0)
The Real O'Neals (1.2)
Likely to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.9)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.6)
Last Man Standing (1.1, 1.1-1.1)
Modern Family (2.4, 2.2-2.6)
Certain to be Renewed
Black-ish (1.7, 1.5-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.8, 1.6-2.2)
The Goldbergs (1.9, 1.8-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (2.3, 2.1-2.5)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.3, 1.1-1.4)
The Middle (1.8)
Speechless (1.9, 1.8-2.0)
The Middle: Premiering at 1.8, The Middle started out lower than any of the Wednesday comedies did, but it is the anchor of Tuesday night, and the night would likely be a mess without it. ABC needs The Middle at least for another year.
American Housewife: Off to a strong start, American Housewife premiered a tenth beneath Speechless, and grew a tenth from its lead-in. It is off to a promising start, and if it can keep up these ratings it will be a lock for renewal.
Fresh Off the Boat: I'm not certain that Fresh Off the Boat will get renewed, because it is the second lowest rated of ABC's single-camera comedies, and a renewal for it is essentially a two-season commitment due to syndication, although the show comes from an outside studio. Renewal is likely, but not certain.
The Real O'Neals: Premiering at 1.2, The Real O'Neals is the weakest of ABC's Tuesday sitcoms, and their lowest-rated single-camera comedy. However, it comes from ABC Studios, that recently has only gotten Black-ish on the track to 88 episodes. Also, with American Housewife still a candidate for falling ratings after week one, and Modern Family getting expensive, I don't want to rule out The Real O'Neals yet.
What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!