ABC Comedy Wednesday
Back when it first started in 2009, AdAge's estimation of The Middle's ad rate was $97,812, lower than everything scripted Sunday-Thursday except for Castle and DOA Hank, and pretty much tied with The Forgotten. With ABC's average ad rate that season amongst fall scripted series being $134,573, and their 2008-09 A18-49 scripted average being a 2.9, The Middle's ideal demo for its first season would be a 2.11. It slightly overachieved, finishing the season with a 2.28 average--though if you look at the trend, it posted a handful of numbers in the 1.9-2.2 range in the fall before growing in the spring to the 2.3-2.5 area, most likely because it didn't have Hank leading into it any longer.
With an ad rate of $130,388, Modern Family's ideal demo number would be about a 2.81. Its actual number, a 3.76, was WAY higher, but it's better to be safe than sorry in terms of freshmen shows' ad rates.
In 2013, The Goldbergs premiered with an estimated ad rate of $108,180. With ABC's previous season's scripted average being a 2.2 A18-49 rating, the average ad rate for a scripted series in 2013-14 was $129,217 (note how close it is to the 2009-10 average; ratings may have fallen but ad prices have not). Anyways, that would put The Goldbergs at an ideal demo of a 1.84. Its actual average of a 1.68 underachieved slightly--just about as much as lead-in Marvel's Agents of SHIELD did. Following The Goldbergs that season was poor Trophy Wife--a show that had a lower ad rate than every scripted show that season except for Friday comedies Last Man Standing (barely) and The Neighbors--yes, even Lucky 7 and Betrayal were set higher. That show's ideal demo would be just a 1.37, a number it didn't even manage to live up to.
In summary:
-The Middle did a 2.28, and was estimated at a 2.11
-Modern Family did a 3.76, and was estimated at a 3.76
-The Goldbergs did a 1.68, and was estimated at a 1.84
What are your thoughts on this? This is more for interest than anything else, but I still thought it was worthwhile.