2014-2015--What the New Shows and Bubble Shows Needed on ABC

The Ratings Junkie Tuesday, December 01, 2015
You may have seen all my posts on this year's ad rates--but what about the numbers from last year? According to these calculations, what did the shows on the bubble need in order to survive?

What They Needed--The New Shows and the Bubble Shows (ABC)
How to Get Away with Murder: 2.31 (2.96)
Forever: 1.16 (1.12)
Cristela: 1.06 (1.00)
Blackish: 1.84 (2.28)
Revenge: 1.61 (1.11)
Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.: 2.17 (1.59)
Galavant: 1.02 (1.32)
American Crime: 1.31 (1.16)
Fresh Off The Boat: 0.95 (1.73)
Secrets & Lies: 1.38 (1.50)

As is seen, ending Revenge was probably an easy decision for ABC, considering how far below its ad rate it was. With a 1.61, it looks like they may have expected more of a Resurrection boost--and for Resurrection itself not to flop!

What's interesting to me is Marvel's Agents of SHIELD, which they may have expected to level off at its spring Season 1 ratings. Another theory for why its number was so relatively high may be because advertisers were attracted to grab a spot during the Marvel hour.

Even though Blackish is a family show, it still looks like they were being a little cautious about setting its rate too high in case it underwhelmed--now they are probably wishing the ad rates for Seasons 1 and 2 were switched!

Also of note are how close midseason entries American Crime and Secrets & Lies were--even at a 1.16, American Crime did not seem to underperform too much, and this combined with possible award recognition may have saved it for a second season. In the case of Secrets & Lies, looks like ABC was almost spot-on in deciding how it would rate.

That being said, they couldn't have been more spot-on with Forever and Cristela--they actually overachieved slightly. Looking at the numbers, I'm actually a little surprised both were cancelled. At the very least, it looks like the advertisers got what they paid for in their one-and-done runs, so that's always a plus. Was ABC perhaps expecting to cancel the shows all along? That's definitely something to look into, but the important part is that according to this, they didn't really lose any money on the two shows--maybe they just thought they could do better with Quantico/Beyond the Tank/Wicked City and Dr Ken.

In addition to Cristela on the comedy side, ABC seemingly WAY underestimated Fresh Off The Boat. Then again, when they set the rate it was set to air after Selfie. Galavant also underperformed a bit, and I'm not taking theories as to why it was renewed.

What do you think of all this? Would you like to see the calculations for the other, safer shows? I'll do them on request!

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