We're nearing the end of the season, and I am beginning to finalize my predictions after what has been a very long NBC season. That means another prediction change this week, as a struggling drama moves to a cancellation prediction in the home stretch. Keep reading to see which show is on the decline. Plus, an update on another struggling performer that remains in the hunt for what may be the lone "pity renewal" of the season.
Certain Cancellation:
Grosse Pointe Garden Society (0.12, 0.09-0.17)
The Irrational (0.17, 0.10-0.31)
Leans Cancellation:
Found (0.21, 0.16-0.29)
Night Court (0.23, 0.15-0.32)
Leans Renewal:
Suits LA (0.18, 0.14-0.24)
Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.30, 0.25-0.36)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.39, 0.31-0.48)
Chicago Med (0.40, 0.33-0.48)
Chicago PD (0.35, 0.27-0.48)
Law & Order: SVU (0.35, 0.27-0.49)
Saturday Night Live (0.80, 0.52-2.17)
Renewed:
Happy's Place
St. Denis Medical
Found: It's no secret that the hardest show for me to predict this season has been Found. It's a show that has seen four different prediction changes over the course of this season, and I think it's as close to a tossup as any show out there. In the end, though, I am now believing that it will be canceled. I think it's a very close race between it and Suits LA, and I think there's only room for one of the low-rated dramas on the schedule next season. I've believed that for a while, though I originally believed a second comedy hour would be what took one of the two vacant hours on NBC's fall schedule. I now believe we've found possibly their only fall series in the just-ordered reality competition series On Brand with Jimmy Fallon, which is set to premiere "later this year." While that show could easily be set for summer, since NBC only has full Monday and Tuesday lineups for the summer so far, one would expect that they would've just announced that already, considering that summer is set to begin in roughly a month. Regardless, though, even with so many struggling series, the NBA deal has left NBC in a position to need few "pity renewals" this time around. Found is a show already in its second season, and struggling greatly since the start of it, particularly in the last few weeks. I am leaning towards NBC parting ways with it at this point in time, giving an ill-advised second chance to Suits LA. While Found's initial renewal did feel deserved, it was still only an OK performer in season one (only two renewed shows that season performed than it, and both are in much worse shape this season than Found), so this season already felt like a "second chance" in a way, especially giving it a show of confidence with the SVU lead-in. The two shows should theoretically be a strong pairing, but Found has marked a notable decline from last year's Law & Order: Organized Crime, weakening Thursdays and often leaving NBC in last in its time slot despite fairly weak competition from both CBS and ABC. The show hit a new series low in its most recent airing in its regular time slot, with 50% retention from SVU and a 0.16 in the key demo. That is, somehow, the highest series low of any of these "bubble" dramas aside from Brilliant Minds, but it is still an absolutely awful showing, especially since Found is arguably in the best slot of any of these dramas, with a strong drama lead-in (though those post-Voice shows don't have it very hard, either). Its next episode after that was a one-off Monday airing, where it got a 0.19 behind a 0.33 from The Voice. That was a little bit better than the week before, and a clear improvement on the last weeks of The Hunting Party, but it's still not great. Law & Order Organized Crime aired a preview of its fifth season in Founds' regular time slot, garnering a 0.27. SVU was stronger that week, bolstered by a highly-promoted crossover event with Law & Order, and 0.27 is likely not what Organized Crime would be regularly getting in that slot, but that episode had been available for nearly a full day before it aired, and it's still quite embarrassing for Found that a preview of a Peacock-bound show rated higher than all but one of its episodes this season (and that one episode, garnering a 0.29, had a 0.49 lead-in from SVU - it's hard to imagine OC wouldn't have done better in that position, too). All of this, coupled with NBC ordering a show that can easily fill another time slot and my newfound belief that the fully-owned Suits LA will get a second chance renewal to give it some time to grow an audience (which will not happen, but I expect they will try), has added up to my belief that Found is done. Again, it's very close, so a renewal wouldn't come as much of a shock either, but Found is underperforming, and even with it seemingly doing decently on the Peacock charts, it's only averaging 1.1 in the demo in MP+35 ratings. We have no data on the rest of the bubble dramas, so you can't really compare those numbers to the other shows, but we do know that SVU was drawing a 1.2 in just MP+7 ratings back when Variety reported those numbers in December. It's not entirely fair to compare Found to a titan like SVU, but we have limited MP+7/35 data available, and Found isn't looking all that impressive from the data we do have. It may well be higher than some of the other linear flops, but it doesn't look strong enough to me to suggest that its streaming performance is anything to write home about, either, so I don't think that'll be enough to save it. It is a tough call at the end of the day, but I feel as if there's more working against Found than for it. It LEANS CANCELLATION, heading into the last weeks before NBC makes a decision.
Suits LA: I addressed this show a bit above, and extensively last week, but after this week's pitiful performance, I feel I have no choice but do a formal write-up of Suits LA. Yes, its 0.14 in the key demo this week on Easter Sunday was absolutely abysmal, and I don't envision things getting any better for it in the coming weeks, when it has to air behind repeats now that its high-rated Americas lead-in has ended. However, this rating is not going to cause a prediction change. I knew it was a linear flop when I upgraded it to a renewal prediction, and at the end of the day, a drop of three hundredths doesn't really change all that much, even if the optics of dropping go from a rounded 0.2 to a rounded 0.1 in one week aren't great. This is a series low, of course, but I don't think NBC is going to change their minds suddenly over this decline. If it is getting renewed, it was never for ratings reasons, and it's clear that The Americas was always artificially inflating it a bit (as much as a 0.17 can be inflated, that is). I continue to believe that, in spite of their own best interests, NBC will try to give this show a second chance, and give it time to "grow an audience" on Peacock over the summer due to its ties to Suits, a different show that performed very well on a different streaming service. They will likely give it a plum time slot next season, to predictably disastrous results, and it will most likely spend all of next season as a cancellation prediction, having merely delayed NBC's search for a new solid scripted performer. A cancellation is fully deserved, as this week's rating has made crystal clear, but I'm keeping it in the LEANS RENEWAL category. A cancellation, however, would not be a tremendous shock, considering its terrible ratings and minimal L+7 viewership gains. NBC has a decision ahead of themselves that I do not envy one bit.
Interactive Schedule:
The TV Ratings Guide
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
Mon
The Voice
The Hunting Party
Tues
St. Denis Medical
Night Court
Deal or No Deal Island
The Irrational
Wed
Chicago Med
Chicago Fire
Chicago PD
Thurs
Law & Order
Law & Order: SVU
Found
Fri
Grosse Pointe Garden Society
Dateline NBC
Sun
The Americas
Suits LA
Dateline NBC
