ABC Renew/Cancel - March 28: Roseanne is Certain to be Renewed

Last night, ABC welcomed Roseanne back to its lineup, and we've already got a prediction for it. Keep reading for our analysis of it!

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Kevin Probably Saves the World (0.7, 0.4-1.0)

Likely to be Canceled

Deception (1.0, 0.8-1.2)
For the People (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
Inhumans (0.6, 0.4-0.9)

Toss-Up

Likely to be Renewed
Agents of SHIELD (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Designated Survivor (0.8, 0.6-1.1)

Fresh Off the Boat (1.0, 0.9-1.4)
Speechless (1.2, 0.9-1.4)
Station 19 (1.1)

Certain to be Renewed

American Housewife (1.3, 1.0-1.6)

Black-ish (1.1, 0.9-1.5)

Grey's Anatomy (2.0, 1.7-2.3)

How to Get Away with Murder (1.0, 0.8-1.1)
Roseanne (5.2)

Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
The Good Doctor (RENEWED)
The Mayor (DE-FACTO CANCELED)
The Middle (FINAL SEASON)
Modern Family (RENEWED)
Once Upon a Time (CANCELED)
Scandal (FINAL SEASON)
Ten Days in the Valley (DE-FACTO CANCELED)


Roseanne: Roseanne drew huge ratings for its premiere with a 5.2. This blows away the previous title of the highest-rated episode for a broadcast series this season, previously held by The Big Bang Theory's premiere. The episode lifted Blackish to its highest ratings since 2014, and helped make newbie Splitting Up Together one of the highest comedy premieres this season. Even if the show falls by 50% by the finale, it will still be huge, and will very likely by the #1 broadcast comedy of the season. The show will return for an eleventh season. That's one of the surest bets of the season.

What do you think of TVRG's predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

ABC Renew/Cancel - December 1: American Housewife is Certain to be Renewed

It's been a couple weeks since the last ABC renew/cancel, since less shows than usual have aired over the last two weeks, with The Good Doctor actually being the network's only scripted show to air both weeks. Next week, Agents of SHIELD will get its first prediction. Until then, here are my predictions.


Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled

Inhumans (0.6, 0.4-0.9)

The Mayor (0.8, 0.7-1.2)

Toss-Up
Kevin Probably Saves the World (0.8, 0.6-1.0)

Likely to be Renewed
Designated Survivor (0.8, 0.7-1.1)

Fresh Off the Boat (1.1, 0.9-1.4)

Once Upon a Time (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Speechless (1.2, 1.0-1.4)

Certain to be Renewed

American Housewife (1.3, 1.0-1.6)

Black-ish (1.2, 1.0-1.5)

The Good Doctor (1.9, 1.7-2.2)

Grey's Anatomy (2.0, 1.8-2.3)

How to Get Away with Murder (0.9, 0.9-1.1)

Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
The Middle (FINAL SEASON)
Modern Family (RENEWED)
Scandal (FINAL SEASON)
Ten Days in the Valley (DE-FACTO CANCELED)


American Housewife: Though it hit a random and surprising low this week, American Housewife is still certain to be renewed. After Black-ish, it's the network's longest-running comedy that they own, and it is ABC's strongest owned comedy out of all three of them. If it continues to perform around the strength of its latest episode, it will still be certain to be renewed, though likely not the strongest ABC-produced comedy anymore.

Designated Survivor: The drama returned after a week off down from its previous episode. While 0.7s are certainly not what ABC was hoping for here, they are likely not bad enough for ABC to cancel the show, especially with the deal that the show has with Netflix internationally and the new deal with Hulu in the United States.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

ABC Renew/Cancel - October 12: The Mayor is Likely to be Canceled

Not much is changing in my predictions this week, and only one show is joining the predictions, but we are not short on things to discuss, as there are two shows that are toss-ups, and two likely to be renewed shows that gave weaker performances this week.


Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Ten Days in the Valley (0.5, 0.4-0.5)

Likely to be Canceled
The Mayor (1.1, 1.0-1.2)

Toss-Up
Inhumans (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
Kevin Probably Saves the World (0.9, 0.8-1.0)

Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (1,3, 1.1-1.4)
Once Upon a Time (0.7)
Speechless (1.3, 1.1-1.4)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.4-1.6)
Black-ish (1.4, 1.3-1.5)
Designated Survivor (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
The Good Doctor (2.1, 2.0-2.2)
Grey's Anatomy (2.2, 2.1-2.3)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.0, 0.9-1.1)

Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
The Middle (FINAL SEASON)
Modern Family (RENEWED)
Scandal (FINAL SEASON)


The Mayor: ABC's only new comedy this fall took a two-tenth drop in week two, and considering that its lead-in did the same, it isn't a bad week two result. However, at 1.0, it is still the lowest-rated of ABC's comedies this week, and while Fresh Off the Boat and Speechless were only a tenth higher in better timeslots, as a new show The Mayor is more likely to fall more (plus this Speechless result is in week three, not two). The Mayor is still likely to be canceled, but not quite as likely as it was last week.

Once Upon a Time: With its renewal last season, it was revealed that Once Upon a Time makes ABC a lot of money through a deal with Netflix (The Hollywood Reporter reported it was in the eight figure range). Due to this deal, the show's ratings would have to go really low for me to predict cancelation. So, with it premiering at 0.7 on Friday, I wouldn't consider it to be in any danger unless it has a bad trajectory.

Designated Survivor: Week three stability is a positive sign for Designated Survivor. The ABC drama department is struggling. Aside from Grey's Anatomy, The Good Doctor, and the ending Scandal, they don't have much. Designated Survivor appears to be stabilizing at 0.9, which should be plenty good enough for renewal, especially for a show that ABC produces and will have two full seasons this spring.

Kevin Probably Saves the World: After premiering with a mediocre result in a timeslot with a bad history last week, Kevin took a fairly typical week two dip this week to 0.8. That rating isn't great, but it isn't that bad either considering ABC's drama troubles and the long list of shows that have failed on Tuesdays at 10:00. So, I'm not moving Kevin yet, since stability from here on could still earn it a renewal.

Inhumans: Stability from here could also be the key for Inhumans, whose fate is even more unsure than Kevin's because we don't know if Disney will pressure ABC into a renewal here like they reportedly did for Agents of SHIELD last year. ABC clearly doesn't care for the show, as evidenced by having it debut on Friday and hardly promoting it. So, I won't ever be certain on its fate, but I will use its performance from here on to decide which way I think it's leaning.

Speechless: The potential that Speechless showed last year, when it would consistently fall two tenths from its Goldbergs lead-in, seems to be gone now, as this week it gave its weakest performance yet. I'm getting more unsure on its fate. Since it is still performing decently, and having two full seasons already could motivate 20th Century FOX (the show's primary production company) to push for a renewal, I am still predicting renewal, but we are only three weeks into the season. Things could go south from here.

Fresh Off the Boat: ABC's Tuesday at 8:30 comedy is in a similar boat to the Wednesday one of the same timeslot, though that timeslot is better on Wednesday than Tuesday, so expectations aren't quite as high. Additionally, if the 82-84 episodes that it will have at the end of the season aren't enough for 20th Century FOX to sell the show into syndication, they will almost certainly give a fifth season of the show to ABC for cheap.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: The Real O'Neals Not Necessary For Comedy Expansion

Canceled	Certain to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
Blood & Oil	Agent Carter	The Real O’Neals	The Catch	American Crime		Blackish
Of Kings and Prophets	The Family		Nashville	Castle		Fresh Off The Boat
Wicked City	Galavant			Dr Ken		The Goldbergs
	The Muppets			Last Man Standing		Grey’s Anatomy
						How to Get Away with Murder
						Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD
						The Middle
						Modern Family
						Once Upon a Time
						Quantico
						Scandal

Why is The Real O'Neals "Likely to be Canceled"?

Last night, The Real O'Neals posted a paltry 0.8 with a rerun of Fresh Off The Boat as a lead-in. With that, it could only tie Fresh Off The Boat in the key A18-49 demo, and according to Spotted Ratings' time-slot adjusted "True" metric, its number was weaker than Fresh Off The Boat's. It's going to look even uglier when the Wednesday comedies do even better in reruns. The Real O'Neals got ample exposure but is not showing any signs of life anymore, unlike Fresh Off The Boat last season. It's the weakest ABC comedy, and I simply don't think it's needed at that low of numbers. Even if given a lead-in upgrade, there is only so far it can rise. If the Friday multi-cams come back and ABC decides to add an extra comedy hour, they would have to premiere 3 new comedies in the fall. Now, a comedy expansion is pretty much impossible if the Friday comedies don't come back, and even then they would only need to premiere 2 or 3 new comedies. Now, let's take a look at how many they've premiered in recent years:

2015-16: The Muppets, Dr Ken, + 13-episode-old Fresh Off The Boat

2014-15: Manhattan Love Story, Selfie, Blackish, Cristela

2013-14: The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife, Back in the Game, Super Fun Night

So premiering 3 new comedies really isn't all that far-fetched. In fact, it would be on par or less than normal. For a time there I had a hunch that The Real O'Neals would get renewed, but the ratings are the ratings and I don't know if you can positively spin what just happened. 

What's Next?

The plan is to get everything out of the Watching column no later than Friday, May 6, aka two weeks from this upcoming Friday. Right now, The Real O'Neals and Castle are the most "bubble-ish" shows of those not in the Watching column, but as I explained above, I think it is increasingly likely that The Real O'Neals isn't coming back. They have a couple plausible options as to how to fit 3 new comedies onto the fall schedule, if they plan to expand comedies that is. What do you think is most likely, readers?

Nashville and The Catch are on the bubble for now. I'm keeping a watch on the development of Still Star-Crossed, which I think is the main hurdle in the way of a renewal for The Catch, and I'm keeping an eye on the Castle contracts to see if Nashville still has a fighting chance. 

What do you think of these predictions? What are your own predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: The Catch on the Watch

Canceled	Certain to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
Blood & Oil	Agent Carter	The Muppets	The Catch	American Crime		Blackish
Of Kings and Prophets	The Family		Nashville	Castle		Fresh Off The Boat
Wicked City	Galavant		The Real O’Neals	Dr Ken		The Goldbergs
				Last Man Standing		Grey’s Anatomy
						How to Get Away with Murder
						Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD
						The Middle
						Modern Family
						Once Upon a Time
						Quantico
						Scandal

Drama Update

Below are the ratings to all of ABC's dramas starting Sunday, April 3:

1) Grey's Anatomy: 2.1

2) Scandal: 1.7

3) Castle, Once Upon a Time, The Catch: 1.1

4) Quantico: 1.0

5) SHIELD, Nashville: 0.9

6) The Family: 0.7

Why Am I Now "Watching" The Catch?

As seen above, believe it or not a 1.1 A18-49 demo rating was enough for The Catch to tie for ABC's #3 drama of the week. It received that ratings out of a 1.7 for Scandal, and while that's only 65% retention out of fellow Shondaland drama, that's also the exact same as Castle received out of Dancing with the Stars just this Monday. Additionally, it's only a tenth below its lackluster premiere rating. It has defied the odds by not going fractional yet, and is performing better than American Crime last season, and with a weakened lead-in. Considering it's a Shondaland drama, and ABC will want to remain on good terms with Shonda Rhimes and her production company, I think this one may have a chance to continue. Meaning...

Bad News for Nashville?

ABC can't renew everything, and if they renew The Catch, it will probably be at the expense of Nashville. Considering the yet-to-be-renewed drama is tied for second-lowest-rated listed above, and has been fractional for weeks, I really don't think ABC needs the show at all. They could work out a deal with Lionsgate for a fifth season, and syndicator CMT may find another season ideal as well, but I'm really not sure ABC needs Nashville any longer. Stay tuned, things could change.