NBC Renew/Cancel Week 3: Ordinary Joe is an Extraordinary Flop

We haven't had any new premieres on NBC this week, but that doesn't mean there aren't any new developments. As the Peacock network's new shows air more episodes, their futures begin to seem a bit more clear. Keep reading for my continued thoughts on Ordinary Joe and La Brea.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 
Ordinary Joe (0.40, 0.33-0.52)

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
La Brea (0.71, 0.64-0.77)

Likely Renewal:
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.65, 0.60-0.67)

Certain Renewal:

Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Law & Order: SVU
New Amsterdam

Already Canceled/Final Season:
This Is Us

Coming Soon:
American Auto
The Blacklist
The Endgame
Grand Crew
Mr. Mayor
The Thing About Pam
Young Rock 

Ordinary Joe: It was already on shaky ground on premiere night with a very tepid 0.52 rating behind a big Voice lead-in. Things have only gotten uglier since then. In week two, Ordinary Joe took a very notable 0.16 drop, a 30% slide in a single week. That's not good for any show, let alone one that already started so low that it needed to stay stable just to even remain in contention for renewal. Week three saw minor slippage in unrounded, but in rounded, it was definitely more noticeable, dropping from a rounded 0.4 to a 0.3 (a 0.33 to be precise). The Voice remains an incredibly strong lead-in, with a 0.96 on Monday night, and a 0.33 immediately behind that is absolutely inexcusable. NBC seems to truly still care about live-plus-same-day ratings, more-so than the other networks. They canceled all of their low-rated bubble dramas in May, even the ones that seemed to have additional revenue streams, so I doubt a show with a Voice lead-in that's essentially tying the season average that got Good Girls canceled last year its going to secure a renewal. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION, and that's being generous.

La Brea: It's premiere was very impressive in live-plus-same-day ratings, and week two was pretty encouraging as well. It technically dropped two tenths in rounded ratings, but in reality, it slipped from a weak 0.8 (0.77) to a strong 0.6 (0.64), a 0.13 drop in total. A 17% drop is not that big, especially for a show with a premise that lends itself to large post-premiere drops. It's only week two, so this is in no way me saying that the show is safe. However, it's a good start. If it can stabilize soon, it's probably going to be renewed. Week three will be key here and I'll probably have more to say about this show then. For now, it LEANS RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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