In the first month of the new season, three ABC shows have flown entirely under-the-radar in my ABC Renew/Cancel, receiving no write-ups at all. That changes today, as I take a dive into comedy staples The Goldbergs and The Conners and sophomore comedy Home Economics. Keep reading for my thoughts on the future of the Wednesday comedy lineup.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
Home Economics (0.4, 0.35-0.41)
Leans Cancellation:
A Million Little Things (0.3, 0.23-0.31)
The Rookie (0.3, 0.31-0.36)
Leans Renewal:
Big Sky (0.3, 0.32-0.37)
The Goldbergs (0.5, 0.55-0.70)
The Wonder Years (0.6, 0.47-0.67)
Coming Soon:
Abbott Elementary
Maggie
Promised Land
Queens
Women of the Movement
The Goldbergs: My prediction for this show has bothered me for a few weeks now. While I am confident in the prediction, I kept running out of space to write about the show, so my prediction for it seems quite pessimistic without a futher explanation. No, I don't expect ABC to cancel The Goldbergs. I don't think it's in much danger of an abrupt May cancellation. However, I do recognize that every show has to end sometime, and The Goldbergs is in its ninth season. ABC has had comedies run longer than that - most recently Modern Family - but I still need to be cautious here. The Goldbergs is declining in the ratings, with its current season drawing only average ratings. That's not bad, but with it being an unowned show that is likely much more expensive than a new show, its time is clearly drawing to a close. I anticipated the network announcing that this would be the final season ahead of the premiere, which they didn't do, which does make me think it might make it for one more season. Still, though, plenty of long-running shows have been announced as ending during their seasons, including Superstore last year and, notably, The Good Wife a few years back (that announcement coming during a Super Bowl commercial). The Goldbergs could very well be announced as ending sometime over the next few months, and it wouldn't be a terrible surprise. It LEANS RENEWAL.
The Wonder Years: It did quite nicely on premiere night, but since then, The Wonder Years has stood out as an underperformed. Regularly rating below its lead-in and lead-out, the promise it showed on its premiere night seems gone. This is not going to be the savior of ABC comedy, and it doesn't even look like it has much of a long-term future. Still, as of right now, it doesn't look so weak that a cancellation seems to be in order, especially when ABC has been touting its strong performance on streaming. I don't know how the show will hold up over the season, but it certainly doesn't appear to be the most likely comedy to be canceled. For now, it still LEANS RENEWAL.
The Conners: It's well-documented that The Conners is quite the expensive show. With industry titans like John Goodman and Laurie Metcalf starring in the show, a revival of one of the most popular shows in TV history, it's not much of a surprise that it costs more to produce than the average half-hour comedy. Its ratings, for the past two seasons, have been underwhelming. While its 0.6 average puts it in-line with the average rating for all broadcast shows, it's still notably weaker than it once was. Still, it seems like a good bet to return. With Blackish already ending and The Goldbergs probably on the way out soon, ABC probably isn't in a position to be ending any of its few comedies that rate decently. The Conners probably won't end up being a very long-running show, but it most likely has another season or so left, because there just isn't much else on ABC that's doing better. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL
Home Economics: Its renewal, though predictable, never really made much sense. It was a first-season show with very few episodes to its name that was essentially a flop from the beginning. There wasn't any promise here, it just seemed to be a show that ABC liked and wanted to give a second chance to. That chance was blown. It's the lowest-rated show on ABC in delayed viewing, and the lowest-rated show on ABC in same-day airings that doesn't air at 10. I can't imagine a world in which ABC is happy with its ratings, and I also can't imagine a world in which its streaming performance is so strong that they can ignore the abysmal same-day ratings. I was cautious with my prediction at first, but things have only looked worse for the show as time has gone on, and it's a LIKELY CANCELLATION.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
