On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. Here's a look at the Lead Actor and Actress in a Drama Series categories. It's sort of a reverse of the Comedy Lead categories with a dominant frontrunner on the Actor side this time and a more wide-open race on the Actress side.
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
This race feels a little bit over before it begins. While he was in a tight race last year with Adam Scott, this year feels like there is not really a threat to stop Noah Wyle from taking home his second straight award for The Pitt. So the question is more about who will fill out the category only to end up losing to Wyle?
It has to start with Sterling K. Brown, who was nominated for Paradise last year and won this award in 2017 for This is Us. He seems sure to get back in for the second season of Paradise, which was a big hit for Hulu. And though he struggled to get in for the first couple years of his series, Gary Oldman is now a standby for the category and will likely get a third straight nomination for Slow Horses. The category was rounded out last year by Scott and Pedro Pascal and both are not eligible this year so there will be at least two changes.
A previous nominee from 2024 could get back in. Walton Goggins got a nod for the first season of Fallout and could certainly get back in. I'm not quite sure what to think of Goggins' chances. On the one hand, he is a well-liked actor and the field isn't that strong, just like in 2024. On the other hand, Fallout does not seem like a show that's going to continue to be an Emmy player as it continues on. So we'll see. Idris Elba was also a nominee two years ago for Hijack but it would be really surprising to see him get back in after the second season of Hijack was mostly ignored and/or disliked. And there's also a previous winner on the list: Lee Jung-Jae was a surprise winner for Squid Game in this category in 2022 but Squid has fallen off the Emmy map so a nomination seems unlikely.
As far as possible new nominees, Mark Ruffalo is leading the pack for Task. I'm not totally sold on Task being a major player but Ruffalo definitely feels like the strongest contender for HBO's drama. Speaking of HBO dramas, Peter Claffey is a contender for A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms. The Game of Thrones universe has never been a huge draw for acting nominees (aside from Peter Dinklage) but Seven Kingdoms was well-received. Jon Hamm did not make it in for the first season of Your Friends and Neighbors but was a perennial contender for Mad Men and could break through for the second season of a fairly successful Apple show.
After that, it gets trickier. While Keri Russell has been a regular nominee for The Diplomat, that hasn't extended to Rufus Sewell but maybe it will at some point. Billy Bob Thornton has snuck onto the Golden Globes list for Landman, which is a huge hit for Paramount+. But I just really struggle with the idea of him actually getting an Emmy nomination for that show. There's been a bit of a sentimental push for Antony Starr to get in for the final season of The Boys, but those types of things rarely happen when they've never been nominated before. Tom Hiddleston was nominated in the Limited category back in 2016 for The Night Manager but the second season, which arrived ten years later, didn't seem to make much of an impact.
A few dark horses who seem very unlikely but are worth mentioning are Morgan Spector for The Gilded Age, Belmont Cameli for Off Campus, Alfred Molina for The Boroughs and Billy Magnussen for The Audacity.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Noah Wyle, The Pitt
2. Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
3. Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
4. Mark Ruffalo, Task
5. Peter Claffey, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Just Behind
6. Walton Goggins, Fallout
7. Jon Hamm, Your Friends and Neighbors
8. Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Last year's winner, Britt Lower, is ineligible this time around and in fact, only two of last year's five nominees are eligible for Lead Actress in a Drama Series. They are Keri Russell for The Diplomat and Kathy Bates for Matlock. Russell is a shoo-in for a nomination and might be a shaky frontrunner at the moment. Bates is more of a question mark. She was picked by many to win last year but that didn't happen and then Matlock's second season didn't make as much noise as the first. She could still get in because she's Kathy Bates after all. But she is not in nearly as strong a position this year.
There is a former winner in our midst though. Zendaya was a surprise winner in 2020 for Euphoria and then she did it again in 2022. Zendaya is as popular as ever but Euphoria was much more divisive in its long-delayed third and final season. Still, I expect Zendaya will make it in and if she does, she certainly could win for a third time for the role that helped catapult her into stardom.
As far as other contenders, Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon have each gotten in twice for The Morning Show and missed once. This definitely feels like the shakiest ground they've been on and it would not be surprising to see both miss for the first time as I think the fourth season of The Morning Show will plummet in nomination count from the third season. Recent Tony nominee Carrie Coon was nominated two years ago for The Gilded Age and could get back in even though the season aired around a year ago. Her co-star Christine Baranski was nominated in Supporting two years ago but has a tougher road ahead now that she is in Lead.
As far as potential new nominees, the one leading the pack is Rhea Seehorn for Pluribus. When Pluribus was airing in the fall, it seemed like Seehorn was going to walk away with the whole thing easily. But it seems like the show has lost some momentum. I still expect Seehorn to get in and perhaps win but I don't think she's as strong as she was at one point. Maybe that will change when the nominations come out. And then there's Chase Infiniti. She didn't get an Oscar nomination this year but was a key role in the Best Picture winner before starring in The Testaments. Elisabeth Moss got nominated for years for The Handmaid's Tale and its sequel seemed to do pretty well with viewers so Infiniti could be a surprise nominee. We already talked about Michelle Pfeiffer in the Supporting category for Margo's Got Money Troubles. She is Taylor Sheridan's best hope for a nomination with The Madison but I just don't see it happening.
Kristin Scott Thomas has been in the discussion for years but still hasn't gotten a nomination for Slow Horses so I don't think it'll happen this far into the run. Ella Purnell had a decent chance two years ago to get in for Fallout but as I mentioned above, I don't think Fallout will start picking up MORE above the line nominations. And there's always love for Myha'la Herrold on Industry but that has never led to a nomination.
A few dark horses include Kaitlin Olson for High Potential (though two broadcast nominees in this category would be WILD), Nicole Kidman for Scarpetta and Sydney Chandler for Alien: Earth.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Keri Russell, The Diplomat
2. Zendaya, Euphoria
3. Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
4. Kathy Bates, Matlock
5. Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Just Behind
6. Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
7. Chase Infiniti, The Testaments
8. Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Next Week: Lead Actor & Actress in a Limited/Anthology Series!
