ABC Renew/Cancel Week 5: ABC’s Queens Will Abdicate Their Throne

A new drama premiered last week on ABC, and it's time for my thoughts on this show's long-term prospects. Keep reading for my initial thoughts on Queens.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Home Economics (0.36, 0.29-0.41)
Queens (0.36) 

Leans Cancellation:
A Million Little Things (0.28, 0.23-0.31)
The Rookie (0.33, 0.31-0.36)

Leans Renewal:
Big Sky (0.34, 0.32-0.37)
The Goldbergs (0.59, 0.54-0.70)
The Wonder Years (0.51, 0.39-0.67)

Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.57, 0.51-0.65)
The Good Doctor (0.40, 0.38-0.42)
Grey's Anatomy (0.66, 0.61-0.77)

Certain Renewal:
Station 19 (0.63, 0.56-0.76)

Already Renewed:

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Coming Soon:
Abbott Elementary
Promised Land
Women of the Movement 

Queens: In one of ABC's only fall newbie debuts this season, Queens came onto the scene with high expectations. With a heavy promo push, a highly-rated lead-in (though one that, admittedly, has never really helped shows in the past), and virtually no competition in its slot, it didn't really have any excuse to not perform well. And yet, the show fell flat on its face right out of the starting gate. With a 0.36 premiere rating, it's the third-lowest-rated pilot of the season, ahead of the colossal bomb The Big Leap and Our Kind of People, a show with a much weaker lead-in. Neither of those shows seem to have bright futures ahead of them, and I don't expect Queens to have one, either. We've seen new shows buck the trends this year and hold steady in the weeks following their pilots, likely because they started from a lower place to begin with. If Queens could do that, maybe it can pull off a renewal. As of now, it's very hard to imagine the network deciding to give the show another season. Sure, basically every 10 PM show on ABC is performing at this level, but I doubt that ABC will bring them all back, and I see no reason for them to pick this show over veterans like The Rookie or A Million Little Things, or sophomore drama Big Sky. It starts as a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

The Wonder Years: Speaking of new shows, The Wonder Years was a solid performer on its premiere night, holding onto most of The Goldbergs' ratings on premiere night. Over time, its audience has bled. One should expect a new show to lose a decent chunk of its premiere rating, but shedding nearly three full tenths over the course of five episodes is very worrying, especially when The Goldbergs has only dropped roughly half that amount. Networks simply do not cancel all of their new shows in a given season, which is why I'm currently predicting that The Wonder Years will be back. Midseason shows tend to rate a bit lower than fall debuts, and ABC seems to be quite high on The Wonder Years to start with. Abbott Elementary or Maggie could end up rating better than Wonder Years, but I'm not betting on that just yet. If that happens, Wonder Years isn't certainly dead, but it'll be in more trouble than it currently is. For now, it LEANS RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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