ABC Renew/Cancel Week 2: Is Grey’s Anatomy Nearing the End?

ABC's Thursday lineup is back, and it's time for me to assess its renewal odds in the latest edition of the ABC Renew/Cancel. Keep reading for my initial placements for Grey's Anatomy, Big Sky and Station 19!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
Home Economics (0.4, 0.36-0.41)
The Rookie (0.4, 0.36-0.36)

Leans Renewal:
Big Sky (0.4)
The Goldbergs (0.6, 0.55-0.70)
A Million Little Things (0.3, 0.29-0.31)
The Wonder Years (0.6, 0.50-0.67)

Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.6, 0.51-0.65)
Grey's Anatomy (0.8)

Certain Renewal:
Station 19 (0.8)

Already Renewed:

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Coming Soon:
Abbott Elementary
The Good Doctor
Promised Land
Women of the Movement

Big Sky: We knew at the end of last season that this was a show in decline. After a stable fall season and winter return, Big Sky crumbled in the second half of the season, with a new storyline that didn't quite connect with viewers. There is good news, though. The show ended its first season with a string of five 0.4s - and that's exactly where it returned. 0.4 is nothing to be thrilled about, but at this time, it's not necessarily a death sentence, especially at 10 PM. Its retention from Grey's Anatomy looks rough, but there is a catch: Grey's Anatomy has a relatively large audience that watches the show same-day, but not live, meaning that viewers watch it later in the night, after it airs. That means Big Sky, in a way, has to compete with its own lead-in. While it is definitely in danger of cancellation at this point, it probably won't be because of its underwhelming retention. It LEANS RENEWAL for now.

Grey's Anatomy: While its premiere rating was much lower than we're used to seeing from Grey's, it is still, undeniably, one of the biggest hits on broadcast television. So why am I not certain the show will be back next season? Well, look no further than star Ellen Pompeo. Just like the past few seasons, Pompeo has thrown out hints that she's getting ready to move on from the long-running series in which she is plays the lead role. In a way, it's understandable, given that the show has been on the air now for eighteen seasons, making it by far the longest-running scripted series on ABC (double the number of seasons for the second-most-senior show, The Goldbergs). One day, Pompeo will, indeed, walk away, and while it's impossible to predict a cancellation for a show with ratings like this, I can't be certain it'll be back when so much hinges on one person re-signing her contract (Pompeo signed only a one-season contract in May). It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Station 19: Is it the biggest hit scripted show on ABC? Not quite, but it is the safest. While Grey's Anatomy is a far bigger hit (particularly in delayed and multiplatform viewing), Station 19 isn't nearly as old as that show. With ratings clearly in the renewal range and it only being in its fifth season, there's nothing hindering a renewal for Station 19. It may be down a plentiful amount from last season's start, but so is just about everything else. Fans of this show have nothing to worry about, it's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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