NBC Renew/Cancel Week 4: La Brea is No Ratings Sinkhole

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, it's another look at the two Peacock network's new dramas, which both had some encouraging news this week.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 
Ordinary Joe (0.42, 0.33-0.52)

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:

Likely Renewal:
La Brea (0.68, 0.63-0.77)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.62, 0.55-0.67)

Certain Renewal:

Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Law & Order: SVU
New Amsterdam

Already Canceled/Final Season:
This Is Us

Coming Soon:
American Auto
The Blacklist
The Endgame
Grand Crew
Mr. Mayor
The Thing About Pam
Young Rock 

La Brea: Last week, I said that La Brea's second week drop was encouraging, but not enough for me to feel I had enough information on it. If it fell a similar amount in week three, it could be entering ugly territory very soon. It didn't, though. It held nearly even, losing only a single hundredth from the prior week. For a new sci-fi show, that's a really impressive hold. It only has ten episodes for season one, which means only seven episodes are left this season. It's hard for me to imagine this show falling so much in that time, when it's been quite steady so far, that it'll be canceled. It has room to fall, too. 0.63 is above the league average, and it can definitely get renewed if it settles another tenth (or even more) below this. It's not totally safe, as anything can happen in the TV world, but I'd be quite surprised at this point to not see it on NBC's schedule next year. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Ordinary Joe: Last week, I marked this show for a near-certain death after a disastrous third week that saw the show plunge to a 0.3, just two weeks after an already so-so 0.5 premiere. It didn't seem like it had any chance to return when it was already so low so early in its run. Then, it jumped more than a full tenth to 0.45 in week four. It was such a large jump, it almost feels like an accident. It feels quite unlikely that it'll hold there, and for now, I'll chalk this week's ratings movement to rigor mortis settling in. It's still a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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