ABC Renew/Cancel Week 3: A Million Little Reasons to Anticipate Cancellation

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, I take a deeper look at two of ABC's lowest-rated shows. Keep reading for analysis for A Million Little Things and The Rookie!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
Home Economics (0.4, 0.35-0.41)
A Million Little Things (0.3, 0.23-0.31)
The Rookie (0.3, 0.31-0.36)

Leans Renewal:
Big Sky (0.3, 0.32-0.37)
The Goldbergs (0.6, 0.55-0.70)
The Wonder Years (0.6, 0.47-0.67)

Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.6, 0.51-0.65)
The Good Doctor (0.4, 0.41-0.42)
Grey's Anatomy (0.7, 0.64-0.77)

Certain Renewal:
Station 19 (0.7, 0.58-0.76)

Already Renewed:

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Coming Soon:
Abbott Elementary
Promised Land
Women of the Movement

A Million Little Things: When it premiered low a few weeks ago, things already didn't look too great for this show. It's a serialized show, so the odds of it staying steady or growing from the premiere already seemed low from the start. It did grow slightly in week two, which was an encouraging sign. Then week three came along, and the show slipped to a 0.2. There's no way to spin that in a positive way. I find it hard to believe that ABC, and particularly, ABC affiliates, are happy with a 0.2 in that slot. Of course, it's hard to really expect much better with such an abysmal lead-in, but still. It's hard for me to predict a renewal for a show that seems destined to average a 0.2 this season. Its only real hope is that its streaming performance, which does remain strong, can save it. I'm doubtful, given the number of shows we've seen canceled recently that were weak in L+SD ratings but strong streaming performers, that that will be enough to make up for these ratings, but I'll be cautious here. It's down but not out completely, and it LEANS CANCELLATION.

The Rookie: I was quite down on this show's renewal odds from the start, and then it adjusted up in the final ratings. Given how everything else on ABC premiered, a 0.3 suddenly didn't look too bad. In the weeks that followed, though, The Rookie has only gotten lower. Perhaps it's not even the show's fault, given how much Supermarket Sweep its underperforming its first season However, The Rookie was in a rough situation last year, with a similar low-rated game show lead-in, and it did better than this. I don't think a 0.3 is necessarily a disaster in this time slot, but I also don't know if it's going to be enough to get a renewal, especially when Nathan Fillion likely has a pretty hefty salary that makes this show more expensive to produce than the average network procedural. It's definitely still in contention for renewal, but at this point, I'm not betting on it. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

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