CBS Renew/Cancel Week 26: Stalker, The McCarthys, and Battle Creek Are Certain to be Renewed for Season 10

 

Supergirl Ending with Season Six

The CW's first female-fronted superhero drama, Supergirl, is coming to an end. Melissa Benoist stars in the series as the titular superhero, the cousin of Superman (who is receiving his own CW show, Superman & Lois, next season). This comes one season after the end of Arrow, the original show in CW's Arrowverse, of which Supergirl was one of the first shows. Supergirl debuted on CBS in 2015 before being moved to The CW after a single season, which also moved the show's production from Los Angeles to Vancouver, Canada (leading to the departure of star Calista Flockhart). Originally a very strong performer for CW, it's been a more average player in later seasons, with its latest season taking a 37% drop to a 0.22 average, making it The CW's #7 show. Season five was cut short by the coronavirus pandemic, and with filming delayed to to the ongoing outbreak, its return is slated for much later than usual. The CW, which rolled out a pandemic-proof fall schedule consisting of mainly acquired shows, already announced a January schedule that will see the returns of most of their regular programming. Supergirl's now-final sixth season was not included on it, meaning the show could see up to a one-year gap between seasons. In addition to Benoist, Supergirl stars Chyler Leigh, David Harewood, Katie McGrath and Nicole Maines.

CW Renew/Cancel: CW Renews Everything, No Wrong Predictions

Welcome to the CW Renew/Cancel column, and big news happened.

Show	Prediction
All American	Renewed
Batwoman	Renewed
Black Lightning	Renewed
Dynasty	Renewed
In the Dark	Renewed
Legacies	Renewed
Riverdale	Renewed
Supergirl	Renewed
The Flash	Renewed
Charmed	Renewed
Nancy Drew	Renewed
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow	Renewed
Roswell, New Mexico	Renewed
Katy Keene	Premiering February 6
Arrow	Final Season
Supernatural	Final Season
The 100	Final Season

As predicted, the CW pretty much renewed all non-final seasoned current shows on the air, except for Katy Keene. No incorrect predictions were made so far this season. Legends of Tomorrow, In the Dark, and Roswell, New Mexico were also renewed. I didn't give them a prediction simply because they have not premiered new seasons yet. Overall, the current record for the CW is 10-0.

Simply put, the current speculation for renewals has something to do with the potential for a possible writer's strike that would possibly affect next season. Currently, the WGA has been in legal disputes with multiple talent agencies over its Code of Conduct. The current deal with the AMPTP is set to expire on May 1. That's expected to continue through next year.

What do you think about the news? Let us know in the comments below!

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'The Odd Couple' Likely to be Renewed

CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of May 6, 2016.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show Title	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	3.0 / 4.7 / 3.75	-12.8%
2	NCIS	1.9 / 2.7 / 2.20	-8.3%
3	Life in Pieces	1.7 / 2.6 / 2.00	--
4	Criminal Minds	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.79	-28.4%
5	Scorpion	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.77	-23.0%
6	NCIS: New Orleans	1.5 / 2.5 / 1.75	-16.7%
7	Mom	1.5 / 1.8 / 1.67	-27.4%
8	Supergirl	1.3 / 3.1 / 1.67	--
9	2 Broke Girls	1.4 / 1.7 / 1.61	-19.5%
10	The Odd Couple	1.3 / 1.7 / 1.55	-29.5%
11	Mike & Molly	1.3 / 1.7 / 1.52	-22.1%
12	Angel from Hell	1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42	--
13	Limitless	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.35	--
14	Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.33	--
15	NCIS: LA	1.1 / 1.6 / 1.31	-18.1%
16	Code Black	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26	--
17	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25	-3.8%
18	Madam Secretary	0.9 / 2.0 / 1.21	-16.0%
19	Person of Interest	- / 1.2 / 1.20	-21.6%
20	Hawaii Five-0	1.0 / 1.4 / 1.13	-5.8%
21	The Good Wife	0.9 / 1.4 / 1.04	-13.3%
22	Elementary	0.7 / 1.2 / 0.97	-25.4%
23	Rush Hour	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.93	--
24	CSI: Cyber	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.91	-35.0%

Person of Interest premiered on Tuesday night to a 1.2 rating in the demo, which was slightly up from the Limitless finale last week (1.1). CBS announced the drama's fifth season as its last in March, so it reflects as canceled (or ended) in the table.
Criminal Minds has reportedly been renewed for a 12th season, which leaves about 33 percent of CBS's 2015-16 slate yet to be decided either way. The CBS staple is the network's #2 drama and #4 show overall with a 1.79 seasonal average to date, so there was little reason to believe it couldn't work out the necessary licensing issues with ABC Studios to return for another season.
The Odd Couple is defying the overwhelmingly pessimistic odds I had for it heading into its second season, as it has averaged an OK 1.55 to date, hitting a couple of 1.6's and 1.7's in recent episodes after premiering to a 1.5. That average is just barely below fellow returning comedies Mom (1.67) and 2 Broke Girls (1.61), as well as above the six-and-done Mike & Molly (1.52) and canceled newbie Angel From Hell (1.42). Given that it is the network's #10 show, already had a first season of 12 episodes, is owned by CBS, stars Matthew Perry, fits the network's comfortable multicam mold, and is seemingly working moderately well in this midseason/burnoff-ish strategy with some episodes airing on Thursdays and some on Mondays until the season is done, I think it stands a comfortable chance for renewal. Of course, it has The Big Bang Theory for a lead-in and is still down a sizable 29.5 percent year-to-year, but CBS's standards are a bit lower for comedy these days, especially with TBBT likely to be on the way out in the next few seasons. CBS had too many comedies ordered last season to fit them all in strategically, especially with Supergirl occupying a historical comedy hour on Mondays, which essentially forced Mike & Molly out and didn't give Angel From Hell much of a chance to grow. CBS could hypothetically duplicate that scenario next season, with 2 Broke Girls acting as the Mike & Molly throwaway, and they could always burn off The Odd Couple in midseason/summer should the situation present itself where they have a successful freshman batch and don't need it. There are a lot of possibilities, if CBS is willing to invest in more episodes. At this point, I think the show has given a fighting effort in its second season and will likely be renewed for another 10-13 episodes as upfronts are nearing. 

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Rush Hour' Certain to be Canceled

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of April 1, 2016.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show Title	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	--	--
2	NCIS	2.0 / 2.7 / 2.24	-6.7%
3	Life in Pieces	1.7 / 2.6 / 2.00	--
4	Scorpion	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.80	-21.7%
5	Criminal Minds	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.79	-28.4%
6	NCIS: New Orleans	1.5 / 2.5 / 1.75	-16.7%
7	Supergirl	1.3 / 3.1 / 1.71	--
8	Mom	1.5 / 1.8 / 1.69	-26.5%
9	2 Broke Girls	1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63	-18.5%
10	Mike & Molly	1.6 / 1.7 / 1.62	-16.9%
11	Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders	1.3 / 1.6 / 1.47	--
12	Angel from Hell	1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42	--
13	Limitless	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.39	--
14	NCIS: LA	1.1 / 1.6 / 1.33	-16.9%
15	Madam Secretary	1.0 / 2.0 / 1.26	-12.5%
16	Code Black	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26	--
17	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25	-3.8%
18	Hawaii Five-0	1.0 / 1.4 / 1.14	-5.0%
19	Rush Hour	- / 1.1 / 1.10	--
20	The Good Wife	0.9 / 1.4 / 1.05	-11.7%
21	Elementary	0.8 / 1.2 / 1.02	-21.5%
22	CSI: Cyber	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.91	-35.0%

On 3/25, CBS renewed Scorpion, NCIS: New Orleans, Mom, 2 Broke Girls, NCIS: LA, Madam Secretary, Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0, and Elementary for new seasons. All of these were correctly predicted by The TV Ratings Guide and have been marked as "Already Renewed" in the table.
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders has been upgraded to "Likely to be Renewed" status this week, as it continues to stay afloat in its first three episodes and slightly overperform in light of the cynical expectations. While it dipped slightly to a 1.3 in its third airing this week, that's still a fairly good result for a 10pm drama in the spring and is still higher than what Code Black averaged in the timeslot. It could be a good international sell for being part of a highly successful and recognizable brand. The Criminal Minds franchise is very lucrative for CBS and this midseason spinoff looks similar to the CSI: Cyber situation from last year, which did well enough in its limited first season to secure a renewal (even if it was sentenced to Sundays at 10). CBS could keep it where it is in the fall and hope it continues to be a solid companion to Criminal Minds, plug a hole on Sundays with it like CSI: Cyber temporarily did, or order more episodes for midseason. The network didn't have the greatest luck with new dramas this season. It's possible they are willing to settle for a familiar formula in the meanwhile and hope their next round does better. We'll see how it continues to rate in the coming weeks.
Rush Hour premiered to a weak 1.1 rating on Thursday. CBS doesn't own it. It's the fourth lowest-rated show on the network after just one episode. There's no incentive to entertain it as a legitimate contender for renewal with many healthier options available to CBS. It's "Certain to be Canceled."