ABC Renew/Cancel - February 3: Fresh Off the Boat is Certain to be Renewed

This week, TGIT had their second week since their return, and the comedies were once again on repeat. Also, Conviction wrapped up its first (and certainly only) season.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Conviction* (0.6, 0.4-0.9)
Notorious** (0.9, 0.5-1.1)

Likely to be Canceled
Agents of SHIELD (0.8, 0.6-1.1)
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Real O'Neals (1.0, 0.8-1.2)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.8, 0.6-1.0)


Likely to be Renewed
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.1-1.5)
Modern Family (2.3, 2.0-2.6)
Once Upon a Time (1.1, 0.9-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.6, 1.4-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.3, 1.1-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (2.2, 1.9-2.6)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.3, 1.1-1.5)
Scandal (1.9, 1.7-2.0)
Speechless (1.7, 1.3-2.0)

Fate Determined
The Middle (RENEWED)

*Trimmed to 10 episodes October 25, predicted certain to be canceled since September 23
**Announced it wouldn't receive additional episodes November 8, predicted certain to be canceled since October 7

Fresh Off the Boat: I made this change a couple of weeks ago, but only got to put it in the headline now, because Agents of SHIELD and Scandal got the headlines. The Wednesday airing of Fresh Off the Boat showed that the show truly does have strength, and I don't see any way ABC cancels it after that. So, let's talk scheduling for a moment. What did that Wednesday airing mean? I think it means ABC is seeing if Fresh Off the Boat can lead off a block still. It seems it can. With how successful ABC comedy is, and considering that there is no precedent for ABC airing only one new comedy in the fall (or only one single-cam) in recent years, I think ABC will expand comedy. This new hour will almost certainly be at either Sundays at 8:00, or Fridays at 9:00. I think Sundays are more likely, and considering all of this, I think Fresh Off the Boat leads off the night. Now, back to renew/cancel.

Quantico: My theory with the Monday move for Quantico was that the Sunday ratings weren't enough, so ABC moved Quantico to Monday so they could get ratings that justified renewal. However, they were unsuccessful in this, like I said last week. It seems now that after two weeks of trying really hard to make Quantico work, with a lot of promotion, but poor results, ABC has given up. According to some wonderful commenters over at Spotted Ratings who watched TGIT live last night, ABC did not advertise Quantico. I believe that this supports my original theory, as well as my prediction of likely to be canceled.

Dr. Ken: My most controversial prediction has definitely been my cancelation prediction for Dr. Ken. This week, there were some mixed signals for me. Dr. Ken got a rating I consider to be acceptable on Friday. If it keeps up ratings like that, I will be changing my prediction. Also this week, ABC ordered multi-cam project Household Name to pilot. If this ends up being their only multi-cam pilot, then I will upgrade Dr, Ken, but if they end up ordering another, then I think only keeping up ratings like its 1.0 out of 1.2 can keep it alive.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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