What May Cause The Blacklist Redemption to be a Hit?
Little competition
The competition that The Blacklist Redemption will face is minimal. ABC will be airing The Catch against it (after the first two weeks, when How to Get Away with Murder and When We Rise will be up against it), which ended with a 0.8 last season, and CBS will be airing Training Day against it, which got a 0.7 last week.
What May Cause The Blacklist Redemption to be a Miss for NBC?
The Blacklist not so strong
This fall, The Blacklist was NBC's second-lowest-rated drama, only behind Blindspot. So, how will will a spin off of the show be able to perform? The latest episode of The Blacklist got a 0.9. If The Blacklist Redemption is just a tenth lower than that in its premiere this week, it will most likely be NBC's lowest rated Monday-Thursday drama of the week, maybe tying Blindspot. That's not a good way for a new show to start out.
Thursday at 10:00 timeslot history
NBC has premiered nine new dramas in the Thursday at 10:00 timeslot in-season since fall 2011. Out of those nine, seven failed (Prime Suspect, The Firm, Awake, Do No Harm, Allegiance, The Player, Game of Silence), and only two made it so a second season, Hannibal and Shades of Blue. If The Blacklist Redemption were to make it to a second season, it would definitely be in the minority.
Chicago Med not the best lead-in
While not a failure, Chicago Med isn't as good of a lead-in as The Voice or Law & Order: SVU are, or as This is Us, Chicago Fire, or Chicago PD would be. It isn't a show that should be canceled, but it isn't a show that should be leading into a new one.
What to Expect for The Blacklist Redemption?
I think that the biggest factor here will be the strength of The Blacklist, or the lack thereof. It seems unlikely that this would perform better than The Blacklist, and it doesn't have to perform much worse to be NBC's lowest rated drama Monday-Thursday.
Which factors do you think will be most in play in making The Blacklist Redemption a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!