ABC Renew/Cancel - February 17: Modern Family is Likely to be Renewed

It seems that this has turned into the ABC veterans renew/cancel post. The headline was planned to go to Modern Family this week, and then in the last week a new promo released for Once Upon a Time could indicate that the end may be nearer than I had thought, which in turn boosts Agents of SHIELD's chances.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Conviction* (0.6, 0.4-0.9)
Notorious** (0.9, 0.5-1.1)

Likely to be Canceled
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Real O'Neals (0.9, 0.8-1.2)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.7, 0.6-1.0)

Agents of SHIELD (0.8, 0.6-1.1)
Once Upon a Time (1.1, 0.9-1.3)

Likely to be Renewed
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.1-1.5)
Modern Family (2.3, 2.0-2.6)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.6, 1.4-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.3, 1.0-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Speechless (1.7, 1.3-2.0)

Fate Determined
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
How to Get Away with Murder (RENEWED)
The Middle (RENEWED)
Scandal (RENEWED)

*Trimmed to 10 episodes October 25, predicted certain to be canceled since September 23
**Announced it wouldn't receive additional episodes November 8, predicted certain to be canceled since October 7

Modern Family: ABC's number one comedy is getting old and expensive. This eighth season comedy has twelve main cast members, and contracts are up this season. That is what keeps it from being certain to be renewed. I would expect to see Modern Family back for a season nine, but it is not a guarantee that will happen.

Once Upon a Time: "For six seasons, the battle of good versus evil has raged on. Now, for some, a happy ending is in sight. For others, this may be the final chapter." That is what the latest Once Upon a Time promo says. That sounds like a final season, but it doesn't have to be. We've been told that the main story is getting wrapped up this season, so that could be all that this is referring to. This uncertainty has made me decide to move it down to toss-up.

Agents of SHIELD: I've given SHIELD an upgrade based on the uncertainty of Once Upon a Time, and the fact that it is very likely that ABC has one more returning drama in the fall in addition to Designated Survivor and the recently renewed TGIT dramas. This may not last long, if Time After Time performs well enough when it premieres in March then SHIELD is back down to likely to be canceled, but right now, even with getting 0.6s, it's a toss-up.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments! (And can we please take a week off from focusing on Dr. Ken, since we talk about it every week and it didn't even air an episode in the last week? You are of course free to discuss whatever, but I will not be discussing Dr. Ken this week.)

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