Are Ad Rates Directly Correlated to Ratings?--CBS Edition

The Ratings Junkie

Recently the ad rates this series were released (click here). Let's look at CBS now, and see how far off some shows' ratings may be from their relative standing in ad prices. For new shows, this is largely due to an over/under estimation of its ratings--for veteran shows, it may depend on expected trends, the demographics it hits, etc.

In the 2014-2015 TV season, CBS's scripted show average for fall series was a 1.857. This year's average ad rate for a fall CBS show (as in November on) was $121,573, rounded to the nearest dollar. The only restraint here was that 2 Broke Girls' ad rate is not available as far as I can tell; only Angel from Hell's.

Since the rates aren't that different this season from last season, let's say CBS is expecting another 1.857 average. Let's see what the predicted ratings for the shows would be if the ratings and ad rates were directly correlated:

Madam Secretary: 1.36
The Good Wife: 1.42
CSI: Cyber: 1.21
Supergirl: 2.41
Scorpion: 2.04
NCIS: LA: 1.62
NCIS: 2.22
NCIS: NO: 1.80
Limitless: 1.67
Criminal Minds: 1.98488 (just to emphasize how close to a 1.99 that is!)
Code Black: 1.92
The Big Bang Theory (Thurs): 4.07
Life in Pieces (Thurs): 2.18
Mom: 1.86
Angel from Hell: 1.82
Elementary: 1.55
Hawaii 5-0: 1.15
Blue Bloods: 1.11

That's interesting to me; especially the numbers for Supergirl, which is already undershooting that, and Life in Pieces, which isn't doing all that much worse than a 2.18, and with a Big Bang that's much weaker than a 4.07. Now, this doesn't necessarily mean that the ad rates and ratings are directly correlated, but these numbers aren't that far off from realistic. So now, let's get to the Winners, Losers, and Honorable Mentions:

Winners