Showing posts with label cbs ad rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cbs ad rates. Show all posts

Ad Rates and Ratings--CBS 2017-18

The Ratings Junkie Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Ad Rates and Ratings--CBS 2017-18
If you missed it, AdAge has posted the ad rates for all fall shows and some midseason shows (click here to see them). In the case of CBS, only the fall shows are listed. Between the ad rates and the shows listed, I have a few guesses as to what happens going forward.

First, though, it's important to put these ad rates into context; for convenience, here are the show's ad rates in terms of percentage of the average; meaning, if a show has a 120 next to it, its ad rate is 120% of the average CBS show's ad rate.

Show
Relative Ad Rate
The Big Bang Theory
229
Young Sheldon
145
Survivor
114
NCIS
112
Seal Team
108
9JKL
106
Bull
103
Scorpion 
100
60 Minutes
100
Mom
98
SWAT
97
Kevin Can Wait
97
Me Myself & I
95
Life in Pieces
94
NCIS: LA
93
Criminal Minds
93
Superior Donuts
88
Wisdom of the Crowd
85
NCIS: NO
79
Hawaii 5-0
70
Blue Bloods
67
Madam Secretary
66
MacGyver
61

Advertisers Aren't High on Friday
With the way the league average is headed, MacGyver would only need about a 0.6 rating in A18-49 C3--or, people who watch the commercials within three days. That would be around a 0.5ish rating in Live + Same Day, definitely a low bar. Considering the first season did 88% of the Big 4 league average in Live + Same Day, this is quite the drop year-to-year. While it won't be hard for MacGyver to beat that 61 threshold, it also shows that ad revenue is lower here than with any other show on the fall schedule. The same really goes for Hawaii 5-0 and Blue Bloods; both are much lower than one might expect, especially given the fact that Blue Bloods is one of the most-watched shows on television overall. 

Not Bad, Young Sheldon, SEAL Team, and 9JKL
Given that Young Sheldon is so tonally different from The Big Bang Theory, it wasn't a given that CBS would get away with charging such a high ad rate, but they did. While a 145 out of a 229 isn't great, it's certainly respectful and based on the premiere rating very well might do better than that. SEAL Team also impressed at nearly the same ad rate as lead-in Survivor, and while they weren't as high on 9JKL as Young Sheldon, it's still the show that garnered the 6th-highest ad rates. As long as it stays above CBS's average A18-49, it should be considered successful enough that make-goods are not necessary. Having said that, there's certainly room for improvement in its ratings.

Wisdom of the Crowd is Just OK
Given Wisdom of the Crowd gets to enjoy airing in the football halo plenty of times, having an ad rate at 85% of CBS's average isn't the most promising; in fact, there are only two non-Friday shows with lower ad rates than it. Certainly this takes into account impending spring numbers, when it airs in Daylight Savings Time without the football halo. Still, given those numbers are bound to be below average, are 0.6-0.8 C3 ratings expected? 

Kevin Can Wait Tumbles
Granted, Kevin Can Wait isn't airing after The Big Bang Theory at all this season, but certainly the hope was there would be renewed interest in seeing Leah Remini on the show as a mini-King of Queens reboot of sorts, especially given the extensive media coverage over the summer. None of that stopped its ad rate from falling 25% from last season; only three shows on all of broadcast television had steeper declines than that. Its only slightly below average, showing that it can certainly have longevity, but isn't expected to be the hit it once was. 

What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comments below!


Ad Rates and Ratings: CBS Edition 2

The Ratings Junkie Saturday, April 02, 2016
Ad Rates and Ratings: CBS Edition 2
If you've stuck with The TV Ratings Guide since the fall, or noticed or menu at the top, you probably figured out that I've been doing some research about the advertising rates of certain shows and the possible correlation to ratings. I have been working on a few modifications to my research, as
follows:

-In the first edition, I stated: "Since the rates aren't that different this season from last season, let's say CBS is expecting another 1.857 average." Yeah, that's pretty lazy. So I took the time to figure out the approximate percentage change in ad rates year-to-year, using the ad rates given by Variety. I've adjusted the numbers accordingly below.

-It is worth noting that these ad rates are based on C3, or even C7, ratings. These ratings are not typically released to the public so the A18-49 numbers are our best indicators. But from the small amount of data released, it appears that most shows experience a tenth or two increase from A18-49 to C3 (some, like Scream Queens and Empire, are said to have increases even higher). The numbers presented below are still using A18-49 averages, but something to keep in mind is these numbers are most likely slightly deflated.

-Finally, I have read that networks are encouraged to slightly overprice an ad, because they don't want to price it too low and not make the maximum amount of profit. Meaning, the "expected number" using a 1:1 correlation could be slightly inflated in this respect. Regardless, they shouldn't be too far off.

OK, so CBS's ad rates fell 8.3% this season from last season, meaning the numbers below are 8.3% lower than the ones originally presented. I haven't deleted the original post though, so feel free to dig for it by using the search bar.

Now, for some numbers:
CBS average ad rate 2014-15: $135,191.74
CBS average ad rate 2015-16: $123,965.05
CBS A18-49 average 2014-15: 1.857
CBS A18-49 (possible expected) average 2015-16: 1.703

Again, the C3 numbers are slightly higher than the A18-49 numbers, and this research is still in the preliminary stages. But I wanted to share it with you readers anyway. Here are the updated numbers:

-Madam Secretary: 1.25
-The Good Wife: 1.30
-CSI: Cyber: 1.10
-Supergirl: 2.21
-Scorpion: 1.87
-NCIS: LA: 1.49
-NCIS: 2.04
-NCIS: NO: 1.65
-Limitless: 1.53
-Criminal Minds: 1.82
-Code Black: 1.76
-The Big Bang Theory: 3.73
-Life in Pieces: 1.999 (let's call it a 2.0)
-Mom: 1.71
-Angel from Hell: 1.67
-Elementary: 1.42
-Hawaii 5-0: 1.05
-Blue Bloods: 1.02

Are these numbers telling of anything? Only time will tell. However, I've found that they may be an important predictor of whether that veteran bubble show will get renewed or not. It's not perfect, but it's something. If anyone wants to chip in and give critique or even help with my research, let me know!


Are Ad Rates Directly Correlated to Ratings?--CBS Edition

The Ratings Junkie Tuesday, November 03, 2015
Are Ad Rates Directly Correlated to Ratings?--CBS Edition
Recently the ad rates this series were released (click here). Let's look at CBS now, and see how far off some shows' ratings may be from their relative standing in ad prices. For new shows, this is largely due to an over/under estimation of its ratings--for veteran shows, it may depend on expected trends, the demographics it hits, etc.

In the 2014-2015 TV season, CBS's scripted show average for fall series was a 1.857. This year's average ad rate for a fall CBS show (as in November on) was $121,573, rounded to the nearest dollar. The only restraint here was that 2 Broke Girls' ad rate is not available as far as I can tell; only Angel from Hell's.

Since the rates aren't that different this season from last season, let's say CBS is expecting another 1.857 average. Let's see what the predicted ratings for the shows would be if the ratings and ad rates were directly correlated:



  • Madam Secretary: 1.36
  • The Good Wife: 1.42
  • CSI: Cyber: 1.21
  • Supergirl: 2.41
  • Scorpion: 2.04
  • NCIS: LA: 1.62
  • NCIS: 2.22
  • NCIS: NO: 1.80
  • Limitless: 1.67
  • Criminal Minds: 1.98488 (just to emphasize how close to a 1.99 that is!)
  • Code Black: 1.92
  • The Big Bang Theory (Thurs): 4.07
  • Life in Pieces (Thurs): 2.18
  • Mom: 1.86
  • Angel from Hell: 1.82
  • Elementary: 1.55
  • Hawaii 5-0: 1.15
  • Blue Bloods: 1.11
That's interesting to me; especially the numbers for Supergirl, which is already undershooting that, and Life in Pieces, which isn't doing all that much worse than a 2.18, and with a Big Bang that's much weaker than a 4.07. Now, this doesn't necessarily mean that the ad rates and ratings are directly correlated, but these numbers aren't that far off from realistic. So now, let's get to the Winners, Losers, and Honorable Mentions:

Winners
  • Life in Pieces
  • Hawaii 5-0
  • Blue Bloods
Losers
  • The Big Bang Theory
  • CSI: Cyber
  • NCIS: LA
  • Code Black
Honorable Mentions
  • Supergirl
  • Scorpion