ABC Renew/Cancel - October 12: Fresh Off the Boat is Likely to be Canceled

This week's edition takes a look at the Friday comedies' situation after they premiered last week, and moves one of the two new shows that have premiered this far out of the toss-up category.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6)

Single Parents (1.1, 1.0-1.3)

Likely to be Renewed
How to Get Away with Murder (0.8, 0.8-0.8)
A Million Little Things (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Modern Family (1.5, 1.4-1.6)
Speechless (0.5)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.1, 1.0-1.2)
The Goldbergs (1.3, 1.3-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.2, 1.1-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)
Station 19 (1.2, 1.1-1.3)

Fresh Off the Boat: The TGIF branding did not help ABC's Friday premieres. Fresh Off the Boat started off the night with a 0.6, a horrific number compared to how the show has done in the past, and to how the Wednesday comedies are doing (and how the Tuesday comedies will likely do). This makes the show's chances grim. Likely the only thing that could save it is if its syndication deals (with Freeform and Up) or streaming deal (with Hulu) happen to be lucrative.

Speechless: The bottom of the hour comedy premiered even worse than Fresh Off the Boat, at 0.5 (though unrounded numbers from RJK at Spotted Ratings indicate that the show was likely very close to rounding up to a 0.6). Why then is it likely to be renewed? Upon finishing its third season, Speechless will be one season away from a number of episodes where 20th Century FOX (or whatever it is known as after Disney acquires the production company) could sell the show into syndication. The renewal isn't certain, because ABC could be concerned that no one would be interested in syndicating the show, but 2000s FOX comedy Til Death became a disaster in the ratings and managed to get syndication deals with WGN America and local affiliates.

A Million Little Things: Stability was key for A Million Little Things getting its upgrade this week. Not only did the show hang onto week 2's 0.8 rating in week 3, but it is likely that this was a high 0.8, based on unrounded ratings from RJK at Spotted Ratings. This makes it seem unlikely that the show will fall far enough for ABC to decide to cancel it.

Single Parents: The new comedy's fate remains uncertain. as it was unable to attain the stability that fellow Wednesday new show A Million Little Things was able to in week 3, dropping a tenth while its lead-in remained steady. It's still certainly a possibility, but challenging to predict without getting an idea of how strong ABC's Tuesday comedy line-up will be. Luckily, next week we will have premiere ratings for those shows.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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