Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)
Certain to be Canceled
Likely to be Canceled
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.6)
Toss-Up
The Kids are Alright (1.3, 1.1-1.4)
Single Parents (1.1, 0.9-1.3)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Splitting Up Together (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
Likely to be Renewed
Black-ish (1.0, 0.9-1.0)
How to Get Away with Murder (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
A Million Little Things (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Modern Family (1.4, 1.3-1.6)
The Rookie (0.9, 0.8-1.0)
Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.1, 1.0-1.2)
The Conners (2.1, 1.7-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.3, 1.1-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.2, 1.1-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)
The Conners: Despite a significant week 2 decline, this Roseanne spin-off is still strong, and ABC must be happy with it, as evidenced by the additional episode they ordered for it today. As a result, it is certain to be renewed. It's doing well enough that it's very unlikely costs will complicate things.
Splitting Up Together: While the season premiere retention was reminiscent of the retention it got in season 1, in week 2 Splitting Up Together fell two tenths to a 0.7, while its lead-in Black-ish got a 0.9, down just one tenth from the previous week. This is concerning for Splitting Up Together, and as a result I have moved it to a toss-up. Future weeks will see where it goes from here. If it turns out that this week was a fluke, expect it to return to the likely to be renewed category. If not, it's unlikely that the show will return for a third season, or even get additional episodes for its second.
Speechless: The poorly rated Friday comedies rebounded in their third week, making me wonder if I downgraded Speechless too soon. I decided that I will wait for upcoming datapoints to see which direction the show will move. If it turns out week two was more indicative of the show's strength, expect a downgrade. If it turns out week three was, expect an upgrade. We will have to wait to see though, as the comedies are taking a week off.
What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
Likely to be Canceled
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.6)
Toss-Up
The Kids are Alright (1.3, 1.1-1.4)
Single Parents (1.1, 0.9-1.3)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Splitting Up Together (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
Likely to be Renewed
Black-ish (1.0, 0.9-1.0)
How to Get Away with Murder (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
A Million Little Things (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Modern Family (1.4, 1.3-1.6)
The Rookie (0.9, 0.8-1.0)
Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.1, 1.0-1.2)
The Conners (2.1, 1.7-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.3, 1.1-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.2, 1.1-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)
The Conners: Despite a significant week 2 decline, this Roseanne spin-off is still strong, and ABC must be happy with it, as evidenced by the additional episode they ordered for it today. As a result, it is certain to be renewed. It's doing well enough that it's very unlikely costs will complicate things.
Splitting Up Together: While the season premiere retention was reminiscent of the retention it got in season 1, in week 2 Splitting Up Together fell two tenths to a 0.7, while its lead-in Black-ish got a 0.9, down just one tenth from the previous week. This is concerning for Splitting Up Together, and as a result I have moved it to a toss-up. Future weeks will see where it goes from here. If it turns out that this week was a fluke, expect it to return to the likely to be renewed category. If not, it's unlikely that the show will return for a third season, or even get additional episodes for its second.
Speechless: The poorly rated Friday comedies rebounded in their third week, making me wonder if I downgraded Speechless too soon. I decided that I will wait for upcoming datapoints to see which direction the show will move. If it turns out week two was more indicative of the show's strength, expect a downgrade. If it turns out week three was, expect an upgrade. We will have to wait to see though, as the comedies are taking a week off.
What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!