ABC Renew/Cancel - October 25: The Conners is Certain to be Renewed

This week saw the Tuesday shows settle in with their second week, which led to two of them moving categories in my predictions below. Also, this week is making me think more about Speechless after an uptick a week ago.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.6)

The Kids are Alright (1.3, 1.1-1.4)
Single Parents (1.1, 0.9-1.3)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Splitting Up Together (0.8, 0.7-0.9)

Likely to be Renewed
Black-ish (1.0, 0.9-1.0)
How to Get Away with Murder (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
A Million Little Things (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Modern Family (1.4, 1.3-1.6)
The Rookie (0.9, 0.8-1.0)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.1, 1.0-1.2)
The Conners (2.1, 1.7-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.3, 1.1-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.2, 1.1-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

The Conners: Despite a significant week 2 decline, this Roseanne spin-off is still strong, and ABC must be happy with it, as evidenced by the additional episode they ordered for it today. As a result, it is certain to be renewed. It's doing well enough that it's very unlikely costs will complicate things.

Splitting Up Together: While the season premiere retention was reminiscent of the retention it got in season 1, in week 2 Splitting Up Together fell two tenths to a 0.7, while its lead-in Black-ish got a 0.9, down just one tenth from the previous week. This is concerning for Splitting Up Together, and as a result I have moved it to a toss-up. Future weeks will see where it goes from here. If it turns out that this week was a fluke, expect it to return to the likely to be renewed category. If not, it's unlikely that the show will return for a third season, or even get additional episodes for its second.

Speechless: The poorly rated Friday comedies rebounded in their third week, making me wonder if I downgraded Speechless too soon. I decided that I will wait for upcoming datapoints to see which direction the show will move. If it turns out week two was more indicative of the show's strength, expect a downgrade. If it turns out week three was, expect an upgrade. We will have to wait to see though, as the comedies are taking a week off.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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