Premiere week is already over and all we can say is that it was a pretty good one for FOX. Here are my predictions for FOX shows including newbies The Cool Kids and Rel.
The Resident: The medical drama returned with a 1.1 matching its highest Monday ratings from last season. This year it has 9-1-1 as lead-out which probably helped it. Of course we have to wait and see how it does in the coming weeks but, so far, it looks good to return in for a third season.
9-1-1: The show did amanzingly well last season and the network decided to move it to Monday 9PM. 9-1-1 had a two-night premiere on September 23rd and September 24th. Both episodes did very well (2.6 on Sunday, 1.6 on Monday). The Ryan Murphy drama is certain to return in 2019-2020.
The Gifted: In May, FOX announced that the Marvel show would move to Tuesday 8/7c in the fall. Honestly I didn't think it was a good idea. The Gifted did good for its first season but nothing spectacular. It was off the air for eight months and returned on Tuesday with a 0.9 which is not bad all things considered. I'm not optimistic though as it has to stay steady all season long in order to get renewed.
Lethal Weapon: After losing one of its lead in May, Lethal Weapon returned on Tuesday with a mediocre 0.8. It matched season two finale but was down 32% year-to-year. Being owned by Warner won't help it and I would be surprised if it gets renewed (or even a backorder).
Empire: Empire is far from the monster it once was but still one of the strongest drama on television. The fifth season premiere averaged a 1.95 among adults 18-49 (down 20% vs last season premiere). Unless it goes fractional, there's no reason to cancel it.
Star: While it's getting pretty good ratings, it looks like FOX is done with it. Star was almost cancelled in May and season 3 is likely the show's last. It premiered with a 1.45 on Wednesday (out of Empire's 1.95) but it's expensive and I think that's why it's getting cancelled.
Last Man Standing: In May, FOX revived the former ABC's comedy Last Man Standing. A lot of us thought it would bomb but it premiered with very strong ratings (1.8 A18-49 and 8.13 million viewers). It has to fall a lot to be in any danger.
The Cool Kids: I always thought it would premiere fractional and... it didn't. It's even this season #1 new comedy (I'm not counting Last Man Standing). The Cool Kids has a strong and compatible lead-in but we never know. I think it's getting renewed as long as it doesn't fall into mid 0s.
The Simpsons: I don't know what to say. The Simpsons entered its 30th season and got a 1.4 (even with last season's premiere). No way FOX gets rid of it in the near future.
Bob's Burgers: It aired at 7:30 for many years and now its sandwiched between The Simpsons and Family Guy. Its premiere got a 1.1 which is a bit disappointing but far from bad. It's safe.
Family Guy: Family Guy is still one of FOX's strongest shows. It was cancelled once but it's now too valuable for the network to end it. Honestly, I can see it lasting for a very long time.
Rel: While the other Sunday shows are hits, Rel is a flop. It got a 1.9 post-Football but only a 0.8 after Family Guy. It has to be very steady to get a backorder. FOX will air all its episodes and then replace it by something else.
CERTAIN TO BE CANCELLED
None
LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED
Lethal Weapon
Rel
Star
ON THE BUBBLE
The Gifted
LIKELY TO BE RENEWED
The Resident
Last Man Standing
The Cool Kids
CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED
The Simpsons
Bob's Burgers
Family Guy
Empire
9-1-1