Let's see how CBS did in week two of the 2018-19 television season.
Certain to be Cancelled
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Likely to be Cancelled
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Toss-Up for Renewal
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Likely to be Renewed
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Certain to be Renewed
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SWAT
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God Friended Me
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Blue Bloods
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Mom
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Criminal Minds
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Murphy Brown
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Bull
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NCIS
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Happy Together
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SEAL Team
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FBI
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NCIS: Los Angeles
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Magnum PI.
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Hawaii Five-0
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NCIS: New Orleans
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Madam Secretary
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Young Sheldon
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MacGyver
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The Neighborhood
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To understand this chart going forward, any changes will be marked in italics in the chart above, with some explanations down below as well. NEW: In week two, series that have been cancelled/ending are moving off the chart to a list below the table. It helps clean off the chart a bit, but may be back as more series fates are determined.
In its 300th episode, Criminal Minds was a massive disappointment returning to a series low 0.7 A18-49. It was a drastic drop for the long-running and once potent Wednesday night drama. Since its renewal has come down to the wire in the last few years, and its not owned by CBS, it seems likely this may be the end of the road for Criminal Minds. I'm confident enough to move Criminal Minds to Likely to be Cancelled after only one episode into its fourteenth season.
The other Wednesday night CBS drama, SEAL Team, starts its sophomore season as a Toss-Up for Renewal. It returned to a rather ugly 0.8 A18-49, holding barely 50% of its Survivor lead in. CBS does own the drama, which has been seen as very important to the network over the last decade. Until I see worse numbers, it will remain a Toss-Up.
Perhaps the biggest shock of the season thus far is the 1.3 A18-49 debut for critically lambasted The Neighborhood. In its lead off 8 o'clock timeslot, the freshman comedy surprised by matching the season premiere of Mom as the third highest rated comedy of the week on CBS. It may only be one week of data, but The Neighborhood is going to start at a rather positive Likely to be Renewed.
On the flip side of the Monday night comedy duo is Happy Together, which finds itself as Likely to be Cancelled after only one airing. It is the lowest rated comedy premiere of the season for CBS and dropped three tenths from its rather impressive lead in. There was a tiny bump in L+3 numbers and with three comedies waiting to air, the clock is ticking for Happy Together.
I was hoping after two weeks of data we would have a bit of an idea where Murphy Brown was heading, but that is not the case. After a rather dismal 1.1 debut, week two showed somewhat of promise by shedding only a few hundredths, to a 1.0 demo. That is the smallest decline we have seen for a revival series, but Murphy Brown started much lower than all those series, and had less of an audience to lose in week two. Of any series, on any network this fall, I think Murphy Brown is one of the most difficult to predict.
Two weeks on the air, and its clear Magnum PI is not resonating with CBS viewers. The freshman drama dipped to an 0.9 in week two, and actually fell behind 10 o'clock occupant Bull once L+3 data is tallied. I just do not see how CBS can keep this one on the air for more than 13 episodes. It officially finds itself as Likely to be Cancelled.
The other show with two weeks under its belt, FBI, finds itself in a much better position to nab a full season order here in the next few weeks. After a promising 1.3 debut last week, FBI only dropped a tenth to a 1.2, holding most of its NCIS lead in. With CBS struggling in a number of other timeslots, FBI is assured as Likely to be Renewed.
CBS' only other freshman drama of the season, God Friended Me, finds itself as a Toss-Up after two episodes. The light drama debuted to a solid 1.3 on an NFL-inflated Sunday, following 60 Minutes. In week two, it dropped into fractional territory, but there are some bright spots with that data point. God Friended Me was actually up a tenth from 60 Minutes' 0.8 and was at a 1.0 by 8:30. Before making an official guess, I need at least one more week of data.
And finally, after one week as a Toss-Up, MacGyver finds itself back as Likely to be Renewed. Just like last season, MacGyver came back with a low result, before holding in week two. If that was good enough for CBS last year, it has to be good enough this year, right? So for now, I do not think there is any reason to worry about MacGyver.
That's a wrap for week two of CBS Renew/Cancel. Given there was a lot of movement this week, and shows are now getting settled in, I imagine future posts will not be this long. If you have any suggestions to make this a better read, please feel free to let me know.
What are your thoughts on CBS' premiere week? Any disagreements with the shows in their respective placements? Sound off in the comments below!
