NBC Renew/Cancel Week 1: Law & Order: Twenty-First Season Unit

Premiere week ratings are in, and for NBC, they're pretty good. However, there are still some shows that just don't look very strong. Stay tuned for my initial predictions for the peacock network, including new shows like Manifest and old favorites like the Chicago trio and This Is Us.
Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 
I Feel Bad

Leans Cancellation:

Pure Toss-Up:

Leans Renewal: 

Likely Renewal:
Chicago Med
New Amsterdam

Certain Renewal:
Law & Order: SVU
Chicago Fire
Chicago PD
The Good Place
Saturday Night Live
This Is Us

Already Renewed:
Will & Grace

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Coming Soon:
Midnight, Texas
The Blacklist
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Good Girls
The Village
AP Bio
The InBetween

Law & Order: SVU: While the show had a weaker start than normal this week, so did pretty much everything else on broadcast. Dick Wolf's long-running procedural is certain to return next season for a historical 21st season, but beyond that things are harder to predict.

Manifest: While Manifest was the season's #1 new premiere, I won't be putting it as a certain renewal, now or anytime soon. Dramas in this timeslot tend to fall quite a bit over the season, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Manifest will lose a lot of its huge premiere. Nevertheless, it starts out as a big renewal favorite.

New Amsterdam: This is in a similar position to Manifest, in that I think it may drop quite a bit this season, despite also having a big premiere. With a This Is Us lead-in that will likely dip throughout the season, it will be interesting to see if New Amsterdam goes down with it. At this point though, it looks pretty well-positioned for a season two pickup.

Chicago Med: Is there room for two veteran medical dramas on NBC next season? Probably. But Dick Wolf's third Chicago series is seemingly the network's least-favorite, at least according to reports from late last season that it might be in danger. I don't expect a cancellation this season, but it's a bit less safe than the rest of the Wolf pack.

The Good Place: Despite a fractional second half to its hourlong premiere, NBC's most acclaimed comedy is a lock for season four. With unknown newbies like I Feel Bad and Abby's and lower-rated vets like Superstore and AP Bio, it's unlikely that it will be even near the bottom of NBC's comedy stable. NBC won't cancel a top comedy performer, at least not this year.

I Feel Bad: It's hard to make a definitive prediction for this one since it hasn't even made its timeslot debut yet, but the results for the debut were not good. In fact, they probably made NBC feel pretty bad. With an hourlong average of less than 1.0, the show was a big step down from last year's post-AGT series, the season two premiere of The Good Place. If I Feel Bad performs a ratings miracle and ticks up behind Will & Grace, it does have a shot, but nothing at this point suggests that that is likely to occur.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

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