NBC Renew/Cancel Week 5: It’ll Be a Crime if the 10 PM Cut Kills Law & Order: Organized Crime

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, a persistent NBC rumor forces me to reflect on one of NBC's strongest 10 PM entries. Plus, an ever-weakening drama gets further analysis. Keep reading for my thoughts this week!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
La Brea (0.41, 0.32-0.49)
Quantum Leap (0.38, 0.34-0.47)

Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.50, 0.44-0.60)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.50, 0.41-0.62)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.69, 0.64-0.77)
Chicago Med (0.64, 0.56-0.70)
Chicago PD (0.64, 0.59-0.68)
Law & Order: SVU (0.59, 0.53-0.69)
Saturday Night Live (0.71, 0.66-0.73)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
New Amsterdam

Coming Soon:
American Auto
The Blacklist
Grand Crew
Lopez vs. Lopez
Night Court
Untitled Mike O'Malley Comedy
Young Rock

Law & Order: Organized Crime: Rumors persist this week that NBC will cut its 10 PM programming hour next season, and it's starting to make me a bit nervous that it may actually occur. If it does, there's a clear question of what will happened to the network's two three-hour Dick Wolf blocks. While the Chicagos all seem safe - and one of them could easily transfer to Tuesdays at 9 - the Law & Orders are another story. Their ratings are solid, but not on the level of the Chicagos, and Organized Crime isn't in syndication like its 10 o'clock Chicago counterpart. Organized Crime clearly deserves a renewal, as its 0.50 last week placed it #2 among all 10 PM series for the week, behind only Chicago PD. This would be, at any other time, enough for me to label it a certain renewal. As of now, however, small doubts remain in my mind that NBC may cut one of the Law & Orders as they cut programming at 10 o'clock, as six hours of Dick Wolf, plus a night of The Voice on Monday and NFL on Sunday, wouldn't leave them with any room for new programming. It remains a LIKELY RENEWAL, but would be one of the most undeserved cancellations ever if it did end up out in the cold.

La Brea: Speaking of shows that desperately hope NBC doesn't cut programming hours, La Brea. What started out as a solid performer just a month ago has quickly gone off the rails, and La Brea ranked second-last this week among NBC's scripted programming - ahead of only New Amsterdam. There isn't a way to spin that positively - New Amsterdam is on its way out, and La Brea really ought to be able to perform better than Quantum Leap does at 10, particularly when you consider that it beat Quantum by 0.15 in the key demo in its first week. Quantum has also been mostly stead or even growing (it was down 0.05 this week, though), while La Brea 's been on a consistent downward turn this season, calling a half-tenth with each passing week. For a show that was relatively stable in its first season, it's disappointing to see it hemorrhaging viewers so quickly here in season two. I don't know what's going on with it, but it's not good, and its future looks grimmer than ever. It only narrowly continues to LEAN RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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