ABC Renew/Cancel Week 3: Alaska Daily to Get Baked

It was a busy week on ABC last week, as the network had its final new premieres of the 2022 fall season. Keep reading for my initial predictions for their entire Thursday lineup, as well as Monday staple The Good Doctor.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
Alaska Daily (0.32)

Leans Renewal:
Big Sky (0.23, 0.19-0.26)
The Goldbergs (0.39, 0.36-0.44)
Home Economics (0.33, 0.30-0.38)
The Rookie: Feds (0.32, 0.30-0.34)

Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.50, 0.46-0.53)
The Good Doctor (0.39)
The Rookie (0.30, 0.30-0.31)

Certain Renewal:
Abbott Elementary (0.52, 0.46-0.57)
Grey's Anatomy (0.55)
Station 19 (0.51)

Coming Soon:
The Company You Keep
A Million Little Things
Not Dead Yet
Will Trent
The Wonder Years 

Alaska Daily: Last week, Alaska Daily became one of the last new fall series to premiere. It also rated last among all of them, with just a 0.32 in the demo, in spite of a strong lead-in, big-name Oscar-winning star in Hilary Swank, and heavy promo campaign. While ABC has recently become known for renewing low-rated 10 PM series (Big Sky and AMLT both rated lower last season and were renewed), they tend to be choosier with first-season shows. In the likelihood that all of ABC's new shows are a bust, Alaska Daily will likely still not get that "pity renewal" - The Rookie: Feds clearly has more going for it, even if its ratings are similar thus far. That show is part of a franchise and thus will likely be easier to get international and streaming deals for, and it is likely cheaper to film than Alaska Daily. While Alaska Daily isn't done for sure yet, it's not starting in a good place. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Station 19: ABC's firefighter drama has traditionally been one of their top series. and though it returned near its series low last week, that remained the case. Its 0.51 in the demo trailed only. Abbott Elementary, Grey's Anatomy and The Conners among ABC's scripted premieres this season, and both comedies have since slipped below that rating. Though Station 19 is now in its sixth season, which is when contract renegotiations tend to make renewals a bit trickier, it doesn't appear to be in any danger of ending in the near future. With so many low-rated dramas on their schedule, ABC will surely do what it takes to ensure a renewal for one of the few strong ones that they have. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Grey's Anatomy: I'm somewhat torn on my prediction here. While it seems hard to imagine the show continuing without Ellen Pompeo (who seems to always be threatening to leave), that's pretty much what's happening now, as Pompeo will appear in just about a third of the current season. That makes a future for Grey's much more obvious, as they've shown an interest in continuing the series even if its titular star were to walk away. I highly doubt that ABC will allow the show, a streaming titan, to end before its milestone twentieth season, even if it's no longer the massive first-run ratings powerhouse it once was. Grey's Anatomy will definitely be back next season, even in the event that contract renegotiations with its star aren't fruitful. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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