ABC Renew/Cancel Week 4: The Not-So-Good Doctor

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, a few 10 PM dramas begin to weaken, putting their future in danger. Keep reading to find out the two shows in question!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
Alaska Daily (0.29, 0.26-0.32)

Leans Renewal:
Big Sky (0.23, 0.19-0.26)
The Goldbergs (0.38, 0.34-0.44)
The Good Doctor (0.32, 0.25-0.39)
Home Economics (0.33, 0.30-0.38)
The Rookie: Feds (0.29, 0.23-0.34)

Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.49, 0.46-0.53)
The Rookie (0.29, 0.27-0.31)

Certain Renewal:
Abbott Elementary (0.50, 0.46-0.57)
Grey's Anatomy (0.54, 0.53-0.55)
Station 19 (0.52, 0.51-0.53)

Coming Soon:
The Company You Keep
A Million Little Things
Not Dead Yet
Will Trent
The Wonder Years

The Good Doctor: Its 0.39 premiere looked extremely healthy, given how most shows returned lower than their finales their year, while The Good Doctor rose a bit. In just in a single week, though, The Good Doctor went from a top 10 PM performer to lagging well behind much of the competition, sliding to a 0.25 in the key demo. That's a full tenth below its previous low, putting it in-line with all of ABC's other low-rated 10 PM shows. I'm not expecting ABC to cancel the show, since it still appears to be a big international hit (which would likely make co-producer Sony more likely to negotiate hard with ABC to work out a deal), and nothing else would likely do any better in this slot. However, the show's age is important to look at: it's in its sixth season, when contracts tend to expire, requiring actors to sign back on for more seasons. That doesn't always mean much of anything, but shows are always in more clear danger at a time when contracts have to be re-negotiated than at any other time. ABC may decide that the show isn't worth pouring all that money into, or star Freddie Highmore could even walk away from the show. Anything can happen, and with ratings on a clear decline, it's not making much of a case for renewal there either. It LEANS RENEWAL, but is still clearly the safest show in that category.

The Rookie: Feds: Speaking of new lows for shows airing behind Bachelor in Paradise, this spinoff of The Rookie took a plentiful tumble last week, going even lower that Good Doc with a 0.23 in the key 18-49 demo. That made it the lowest-rated series on ABC last week, even lower than Alaska Daily, for which I am already predicting a cancellation. While I've stated that I expect the show to be renewed due to its association with the Rookie, and the value that ABC apparently sees in it, it's also easy to see ABC cancelling it when ratings are so abysmal. Its multiplatform ratings for the premiere (which takes delayed DVR and streaming viewing into account) were relatively strong, so it will remain on the renewal end for now, but it's very much on the borderline. It LEANS RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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