ABC Renew/Cancel Week 2: The Rookie Is Not TV’s Next Great Franchise

In this update of the ABC Renew/Cancel, to attention turns ABC's later attempt at a franchise: The Rookie. Keep reading for my first thoughts this season on the two shows that make up that budding franchise.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
Big Sky (0.22, 0.19-0.26)
The Goldbergs (0.40, 0.36-0.44)
Home Economics (0.34 , 0.30-0.38)
The Rookie: Feds (0.34)

Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.52, 0.51-0.53)
The Rookie (0.31*)

Certain Renewal:
Abbott Elementary (0.52, 0.46-0.57)

Coming Soon:
Alaska Daily
The Company You Keep
The Good Doctor
Grey's Anatomy
A Million Little Things
Not Dead Yet
Station 19
Will Trent
The Wonder Years

The Rookie: Feds: One of two new ABC series on their fall schedule, this Rookie spinoff got off to a sluggish start last week, with a 0.34 premiere behind a 0.65 from Bachelor in Paradise. This was a middling performance, even by 10 PM standards, for a highly-promoted series. It does, however, have a few points in its favor: for one, its retention isn't quite as horrendous as it appears. Bachelor shows are notorious for not benefiting their lead-out shows in any meaningful way, with even shows that seem compatible posting dreadful retention. Fellow Tuesday at 10 series Big Sky had even worse retention two seasons ago behind The Bachelorette, but ended up becoming an extremely solid player for ABC for the first half of its first season, including after it lost that lead-in (we all know what, unfortunately, became of its beyond that point). So I won't consider how much it dropped from its lead-in all that much when predicting for it. 0.34 is still weak without considering its lead-in, but considering 10 PM series tend to rate a bit below the league average, and the lead average is looking to be about a 0.4 this season, it doesn't take renewal off the table. The aforementioned Big Sky, A Million Little Things and Home Economics (which doesn't even air at 10) were all renewed with lower than a 0.34 average, so things such as international sales (which should be easier to get as a spinoff of an established series), screaming performance and production costs will be big factors. Ratings will not be the end all be all for this show, as it seems highly unlikely that a spinoff of The Rookie, a show that averaged 0.36 last year, was greenlit in the first place for first-run ratings purposes. As long as it avoids outright bombing to a 0.1 down the line, it should be able to get a renewal. It LEANS RENEWAL.

The Rookie: Speaking of The Rookie, it also premiered last week. I ignored it in my last renew/cancel update, despite premiering beforehand, as final ratings for it were not yet released. Now that they have been, its 0.31 premiere behind a 0.47 from Celebrity Wheel looks pretty meager. A show with heavy live viewing like Wheel should theoretically be a strong lead-in and boost a causal viewer-friendly procedural like The Rookie. Nevertheless, Sunday at 10 is known to be a difficult slot, and it's only a half-tenth worse than its season four premiere. This is also only a half-tenth below its season four average, which was boosted from airing behind American Idol, so it's no an entirely unexpected return. That performance last season didn't stop ABC from ordering a spinoff series, which indicates that the show makes them money in spite of middling ratings returns. With that in mind, it's hard to imagine ABC canceling it during a season which has, thus far, drawn pretty status quo ratings. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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