Welcome to Week 4 of CBS Renew/Cancel! Below is the table of predictions, followed by an analysis of shows that saw movements in the rankings. This edition also sees an analysis for NCIS: Los Angeles, as it just premiered. First, here are the category changes from Week 3:
-Fire Country moves from Leans Renew to Likely Renew
-NCIS: Hawaii moves from Likely Renew to Leans Renew
This edition also sees a downward movement for NCIS and an upward movement for Blue Bloods.
Fire Country
In CBS Renew/Cancel Week 3, the only data point we had for Fire Country was a preliminary 0.4. Since then, we found out it grew from its S.W.A.T. lead-in slightly when rounding to the hundredth. It also received another preliminary 0.4 in Week 2, staying consistent with both its lead-in and lead-out. While we don’t have final ratings for Week 2 yet, we do know it grew from S.W.A.T. in total viewers again. Fire Country is undoubtedly the strongest new show so far on CBS, with an admirable Week 2 hold bumping it up to the Likely Renew category.
NCISNCIS sjust hit a new low of 0.39. It’s possible that fellow 9 pm show Fire Country beat it on a Friday, which is also certainly less expensive. I am guessing CBS will opt to end the spin-offs before NCIS, but there’s still a non-zero chance this could be the final season if they announce it soon enough. With its ratings weakening it falls down one spot, but remains in the Likely Renew category.
NCIS: Hawaii
With a new low for NCIS came a new low for NCIS: Hawaii: a dreadful 0.28. Being tied into the NCIS franchise and two seasons away from syndication after this one could help it some, especially if CBS is looking to phase out the franchise but wants to get backend money out of one more show. Still, this is dangerous territory for any show. If its ratings and retention don’t rebound, expect a cancelation or a move to a very low priority time slot.
Blue Bloods
Seeing unrounded ratings for Week 1, Blue Bloods proved to be the highest-rated of CBS’ Friday lineup. It is also likely that is the case for Week 2, looking at the total viewers count. This, combined with just how terrible NCIS: Hawaii did this week, allows it to move up a spot in the rankings. Expenses and age prevent it from hitting the Likely Renew category, at least for now.
NCIS: Los Angeles
NCIS: Los Angeles didn’t do terrible with retention for its premiere, getting a 0.37 out of East New York’s 0.40. That’s still barely an uptick from its series low of a finale in the spring, which itself took a steep drop from the show’s usual ratings. It just has not been a good year for the NCIS franchise, and if CBS decides to try to drag NCIS: Hawaii to syndication, there may be no spot on the schedule for NCIS: Los Angeles. It’s always tough to predict a cancelation for a show that’s been on the air as long as this one, which has just entered its 14th season. Its season premiere didn’t do anything to convince me to move it away from its Tilts Cancel prediction right away.
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