FOX Renew/Cancel: May Is Approaching, What's In Store?

Welcome to the latest edition of FOX Renew/Cancel! As May approaches, it's time to take a closer look into where shows stand.

The Real and Relative Ad Rates

Bob's Burgers6501953
The Simpsons155838126
Son of Zorn126053102
Family Guy129428105
The Last Man On Earth10189583
Brooklyn Nine-Nine10180382
New Girl10232983
Scream Queens12143898
Lethal Weapon164853134
Hell's Kitchen7756163
The Exorcist5055141
Making History8103566
24: Legacy 138720112
The Mick10357384
Shots Fired140132113
Prison Break131766107
Kicking and Screaming 10251683
MasterChef Junior8660970
Sleepy Hollow5686046

The (Relative) Ratings

The Table

New Girl vs. Brooklyn Nine-Nine vs. The Last Man On Earth
All three comedies are above their target, which while not a perfect indicator of if a show will be renewed or canceled, is one of the most accurate tools we can use with publicly available data. In addition, all three shows are either at 88 or 89 percent of FOX's average, so they're basically all in the same situation if you look just at the Live + Same Day ratings.

New Girl has the advantage of being produced by FOX and having a syndication deal, though it's likely the most expensive one of the bunch and its unknown if the cast needs to work out contracts. Also, it has seen lead-out The Mick regularly grow from it, so it's not providing the exact lead-in support that a show would like. The same goes for Brooklyn Nine-Nine; after a decent fall, it's returned to steady 0.7s to start off Tuesday night, putting it behind The CW in the ratings. It does have a five-season syndication deal with TBS, though, which tells me that it's getting renewed. On FOX? Maybe not. But I'd expect a 5th season somewhere. Finally, there's The Last Man On Earth, which has the lead-in of all of them, though has shown to be lead-in independent at this point in its run. Holding at steady 0.8s, it's the highest-rated of the three Lord Miller Productions shows.

FOX already has the animated trio returning, presumably in the fall, and The Mick joining them, there is little room left. At this point, I'm thinking The Last Man On Earth and New Girl will be back on FOX, while Brooklyn Nine-Nine will air its fifth season somewhere else.

Many think that Rosewood was moved to Friday so that it can get to syndication, or four full seasons. It's just as plausible though that it was moved to Friday simply to get out of the way of the weekday, air out its order, and go away. The Live + Same Day ratings certainly aren't anything to brag about, nor are the DVR numbers. It does repeat well, though, which could show potential syndicators value. Rosewood will test how much networks want to get shows with two full seasons to syndication.

24: Legacy
FOX brass openly admitted that 24: Legacy didn't do as well as they expected it to, and they weren't alone. Another round of the 24 spin-off wouldn't surprise me, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we don't hear word about it come May.

What do you think of my predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

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