ABC Renew/Cancel - April 28: Once Upon a Time is Likely to be Renewed

You won't be able to say that this edition of ABC Renew/Cancel is boring! We have some prediction changes (three, to be exact) in this penultimate week of ABC Renew/Cancel, and I have to say that some of these shows are very difficult to predict. In particular, The Catch, Once Upon a Time, and Imaginary Mary are challenging. So, take a look at this week's predictions, and then read my analysis to see why things are predicted the way they are, and why this network is really making it challenging to figure out what they are going to do.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
American Crime (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.7-1.1)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.7, 0.5-1.0)
The Real O'Neals (0.9, 0.8-1.2)

The Catch (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
Imaginary Mary (1.0, 0.8-1.4)

Likely to be Renewed
Agents of SHIELD (0.7, 0.6-1.1)
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.0-1.5)
Modern Family (2.2, 1.9-2.6)
Once Upon a Time (0.9, 0.7-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.1-1.9)
Black-ish (1.5, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.3, 0.9-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.0-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.4-2.0)
Speechless (1.6, 1.2-2.0)

Fate Determined
Conviction (CANCELED)
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
How to Get Away with Murder (RENEWED)
The Middle (RENEWED)
Notorious (CANCELED)
Scandal (RENEWED)
Time After Time (CANCELED)

Once Upon a Time: After a ratings uptick this week, I decided to move Once Upon a Time to a not-very-confident likely to be renewed. I believe that ABC will want to renew at least one, maybe both, of Once Upon a Time or The Catch. While The Catch does have the power of Shonda Rhimes, and Once Upon a Time does have the risks of a big ratings drop with its very different seventh season, I think that Once Upon a Time's stronger ratings than The Catch will get it a renewal.

Imaginary Mary: Why is this show getting upgraded after going down this week? Well, it's complicated. First, there is the season finale date announcement. With this announcement, ABC is saying that, at least at the moment, they only plan on broadcasting 8 episodes in Imaginary Mary's first season. Imaginary Mary produced nine episodes, and the production numbers listed on The Futon Critic show that this episode order was not cut to eight. Imaginary Mary is not getting ratings that would make the network that aired all episodes of Notorious and Conviction not air an episode, so most likely the episode not scheduled would air as part of season two if renewed, like ABC did with Don't Trust the B in Apartment 23, and if canceled most likely ABC would stop calling that the season finale and air the episode at a later date. This means that a renewal is at least on the table. This brought a theory I had in the back of my mind to the front of my mind. What if Dungey likes to give first season shows second chances, as long as they don't completely fail (like Conviction and Notorious did)? While other reasons could be prescribed to those shows, this could help explain the renewals of The Real O'Neals and The Catch last season. Imaginary Mary performed well enough on its own this week, so I am leaning towards a renewal. I just want to make sure it doesn't fall to 0.7 or something next week, so I'm not moving it to likely to be renewed yet. (Also, I would like to note that, while the animation may be a concern to some, the show is not using as much anymore, with the Mary character having little screen time in the recently-aired ninth produced episode of the season.)

The Catch: After another 0.6 this week, I have downgraded The Catch to a toss-up like I said I would in this case. Additionally, my thinking about how ABC seems to favor first season shows got me more down on The Catch's chances this week. Was the reasoning for last year's renewal "Shonda Rhimes produces it, so we will renew it", or was it "Shonda Rhimes produces it, so we will give it a second chance, despite not fully deserving one"? Additionally, even if it was the former, perhaps the new project Black's Law, which is likely to get ordered and put on the fall schedule, will be enough for Shonda Rhimes, and she won't care about a cancelation for The Catch. But, could holding off Still Star-Crossed for the summer make ABC more inclined to renew The Catch to keep Shonda Rhimes happy? I am unsure as to the answers to all of these questions, though I have some guesses as to their answers. In the final edition of ABC Renew/Cancel for the season next week, I will make a decision one way or another for The Catch, but for now it's a toss-up.

Agents of SHIELD: Back down this week to 0.7, Agents of SHIELD is still likely to be renewed, and still the most likely out of the non-Designated Survivor yet-to-be-renewed dramas. While the 0.8 it got last week was nice, I don't think many expected it to stay there this week, and its upgrade last week was not based on that, it was just a plus. For more on why Agents of SHIELD is likely to be renewed, you can take a look at last week's ABC Renew/Cancel.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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